Winter in Big Cities of the East Ranked Among the Coldest Since 1950 -

intellicast.com ^ | March 10, 2003 | Joe D'Aleo Chief WSI/INTELLICAST Meteorologist

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND RECORD SNOWCOVER A KEY TO THIS WINTER
Winter in Big Cities of the East Ranked Among the Coldest Since 1950

Written March 10, 2003
by Joe D'Aleo
Chief WSI/INTELLICAST Meteorologist

In our winter outlook in the fall we showed why the oceans were in a mode, which favored enhanced high latitude blocking, which would make this El Nino colder than the ones we were used to in recent decades.

The degree of high latitude blocking is measured by two climate indices, the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations. In recent stories, we showed how the negative mode of both modes favored colder and often snowier than normal conditions in the eastern United States and Europe, even in El Nino winters. The indices were at or near the most negative values observed since 1950 especially during the early winter from October to December.

October to December Arctic Oscillation values were the most negative since 1950. This high latitude blocking helped generate large polar and arctic air masses that helped build deep snowcover and make the winter very cold for many areas in the hemisphere.

This high latitude blocking helped generate extensive polar and arctic air masses that brought extreme cold to places in the Northern Hemisphere. Here in North America, the flow pattern entrained frigid Siberian air to join with the cold high pressure building in Canada. The coldest air was focused on the eastern states.

With the large cold air masses came much more snow than normal across the hemisphere. In fact, according to the data compiled at the CPC, the extent of the Northern Hemisphere's snowcover from October through February was the greatest since records were started in 1973. It even exceeded the deep snowcover of the winters of the late 1970s.

October to February 2002/03 average snowcover for the Northern Hemisphere was at the highest level in the data set eclipsing the previous record set in the winter of 1976/77. From CPC: ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cpc/wd52dg/snow/snw_cvr_area/NH_AREA

PERSISTENT COLD WEATHER FROM OCTOBER TO FEBRUARY
El Nino winters are characterized dependably by a ridge in the western parts of North America and a trough in the eastern areas. With the productive Polar Regions and extensive snowcover, temperatures in the trough in the eastern states averaged persistently below normal. Temperatures during the October to February period ranked among the top ten winters since 1950 in many cities in the northeast.

In Boston, it was the second coldest such period just behind 1976/77.

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS

Year	Average Temperature
1976/77	35.42
2002/03	35.72

In New York City, the period ranked 4th coldest since 1950 behind the two memorable cold winters in the late 1970s (1976/77 and 1977/78) and the winter of 1967/68.

CENTRAL PARK, NEW YORK

Year	Average Temperature
1976/77	37.55
1967/68	38.25
1977/78	39.35
2002/03	39.70

In Rochester, New York, the winter ranked 7th coldest since 1950, tied with the winter of 1969/70 (our top analog year).

ROCHESTER, NEW YORK

Year	Average Temperature
1976/77	29.48
1993/94	30.38
1962/63	30.38
1981/82	31
1978/79	31.44
1969/70	31.56
2002/03	31.56

In Baltimore (BWI Airport), the winter ranked 3rd coldest behind 1976/77 and 1962/63.

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND

Year	Average Temperature
1976/77	37.04
1962/63	37.16
2002/03	38.63

What a difference a year can make. Many of these same locations during the same period last year found temperatures ranking among the warmest on record as resurgent solar activity produced a shrunken polar vortex and enhanced zonal flow, which in turn maximized the maritime influence on the continents and limited the extent of the snowcover. It also led to near record drought that lingered through the summer in many areas.

These two years demonstrate how many factors combine to choreograph the weather and climate as we march from season to season and year-to-year on our ride through time.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

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[MEG33]

I know..it's a plot by the VRWC to deflect the attention away from global warming.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SNOWCOVER GREATEST ON RECORD(October to March Average Beats Out the Great Winters of 1976-1979)

Written April 14, 2003
by Joe D'Aleo
Chief WSI/INTELLICAST Meteorologist

Average Northern Hemisphere Snowcover from October to March. This year, the snowcover was the most extensive in the entire period of record (since 1973). It beat out the three very cold years in the late 1970s. This data is compiled by the Climate Prediction Center and is available in table form from: ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cpc/wd52dg/snow/snw_cvr_area/NH_AREA.

[thegreatbeast]

So what is it? Nuclear winter?
Woe is me! Woe is me! Now I won't live to 125 and see my great, great, great grandchildren graduate from college! Woe is me!

[RockBassCreek]

won't live to 125

very true. everyone will die. and then there is a judgement. get ready.

[Joe Hadenuf]

I agree, it's even cold on the west coast. I saw clouds today and it only got up to 70 degrees......Cold weather sucks...

[Graewoulf]

The Arctic Oscillation Index shows an alarming trend since 1994: GLOBAL WARMING HAS ENDED!

I'm sure we will be soon be bombarded with GLOBAL COOLING phobia. Wonder what the CO2 folks will have to say about that?

[Grampa Dave]

The utter heart break and depression of Global Warming with this long and hot winter.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

So what happened to Global warming this year?

[CFC__VRWC]

So what happened to Global warming this year?

Oh, don't worry, it'll be back sometime in August, when the temperature in New York City actually tops 90 degrees on two consecutive days. And of course it will all be George Bush's fault.

[LiteKeeper]

Yeah! Take that you Kyoto-hugging libs. Told ya so!

[El Gato]

I'm sure we will be soon be bombarded with GLOBAL COOLING phobia. Wonder what the CO2 folks will have to say about that?

The next Ice Age is upon us. Pack up and head south!

Seriously though, we are about due again for an ice age. they tend to come on rather quickly, especially in geological terms, but perhaps even in human terms.

Speaking of south though, when I left my office about 9:30 PM or so, it was 83 degrees F outside, and the humidity was 72% (felt higher) . Not sure what the high today was...but I'll check..wait one.... 91 deg (and the RH was 55 %. At 11 PM, and currently, it was/is 81 deg, 88% RH with fog. It feels like 89 degrees (RealFeel) at midnight! The first week of May! And my A/C is running! Dewpoint is rising as the temperature falls, so by morning, my car, which I just washed!, will be covered in a dried crud from the Mexican smoke being trapped in the dew, and then dried by the morning sun. Grr!

I don't care if is San Antonio! So much for global cooling too. :)

There is a novel, Fallen Angels, by Larry Niven, Jerry Pournelle and Michael Flynnthat takes as it's premise that we were overdue for an ice age, and industrial activity postponed it. Then when the econazi's got all the "greenhouse gases" and "ozone depleting" substances reduced, the ice age kicked in, with a vengance! Of course their response is "only one earth" and "conserve", resulting in yet faster growth of the polar ice caps.

[buffyt]

Our winter in LA and Lake Jackson,Texas - normal. Lived in LA in 1988, lived in LJ off and on since 1973, winters were totally normal in both places. Global Warming is such a hoax

[buffyt]

Do you know how much longer the Mexican smoke will be here? I am SICK of the stench. What good does it do for Houston area to clean up auto emissions, when we have to choke through the Mex. smoke all the time. My house smells like it has been on fire!

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Do you know how much longer the Mexican smoke will be here?

Why is there Mexican smoke there?

[TheSpottedOwl]

Damn you Al Gore!

I guess I should quit being so antisocial and find a guy to keep me warm....

[Concentrate]

The stats for Central Park are deceiving, I think, because the city is like, what do they call it in Phoenix? A heat platform or something. The point is that it was and usually is about 10 degrees colder outside the city, which creates its own heat.

[farmfriend]

Global warming at it's finest! Ice tea anyone?

[nopardons]

Kery claims that " GLOBAL WARMING " is a worse threat than terrorism. I wish he'd pay my oil bill, for this past winter ." GLOBAL WARMING " my Aunt Fanny !