SARS Could Be Endemic Says WHO

IrishExaminer.com, Ireland ^ | 04-29-03

[Brian S]

29/04/2003 - 1:15:00 pm

The World Health Organisation warned today that Sars could yet become an endemic disease if further outbreaks are not contained.

To prevent such a human tragedy from occurring, all affected governments must enforce meticulous screening to detect every new case of Sars, Dr. David Heymann, the Who’s chief of communicable diseases, told an emergency summit of Southeast Asian leaders in Bangkok, the Thai capital.

The summit was held to devise ways to deal with severe acute respiratory syndrome, which has taken a heavy toll on the economies of the 10 countries forming the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean.

The summit is meant “to instil confidence among people around the world and show them that the region has come together to work closely and respond to this problem and has the situation under control,” Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said.

Asean comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Burma, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Heymann, who on Monday had said that the worst is over for Hong Kong, Singapore, Toronto and Vietnam, said today there is no reason to celebrate yet.

“Certainly the risk and the threat of this disease becoming an endemic disease – a usual disease in humans – is still very great,” he said.

He said he left the Asean leaders with four messages including the most important one: “Sars outbreaks can be contained by detecting all cases and making sure there’s protection of people working with those cases.”

His other messages were: an infectious disease in one country is a concern to the entire world information dispensed by Who has helped contain outbreaks in many countries and there is a big discrepancy between the real risk and the perceived risk by the general public of contracting the disease.

He said public health workers have understood that there need to be surveillance systems which detect where the disease is occurring.

However, “the general public has not shown they understand what needs to be done,” said Heymann.

“We also stressed the fact that much of the impact economically is due to a misperception about transmission of this disease by the general public,” he said.

“The general public does not understand completely how this disease is spread,” he said, adding that wearing masks on the streets is futile because Sars is transmitted from close contact with a person.

[CathyRyan]

The general public does not understand completely how this disease is spread,” he said,

And may I add the experts do not either.

[eureka!]

This warning should not fall on deaf ears. A close doctor friend had some very chilling things to say about SARS, should it become widespread. That is, while the mortality rate appears low (5% or so), that is because of the age and/or health of the infected. Should it become widespread and inflict the elderly and less resilient, we will be looking at well over 50%. Do the math if this thing gets out of control. Frightening....

[Brian S]

It also appears that most healthcare systems have been able to handle the load of patients and nurse them back to health. Should that system be overwhelmed with many not able to receive treatment, the deaths will also soar.

I understand that most all of the cases of sars end up on a respirator before recovery.

[Brian S]

You got that right! Yet they are going to have a test for the sickness in a couple of weeks. /sarcasm

[eureka!]

Re#4 Yep. The doc also said that the US does not have enough tank oxygen in stock in the event of mass infections. Truly frightening....

[Trust but Verify]

'This thing' is not out of control, with the possible exception of China. The elderly and less resilient are always at higher risk. I'm not at all frightened and I with people would stop trying to scare others.

[CathyRyan]

IIRC about 10 to 20% in up in ICU and not all of them end up on respirators.

[eureka!]

Understood and agreed. Did not mean to be a Chicken Little--just an anecdotal medical note on the seriousness of it all...

[Trust but Verify]

with=wish. I do not lisp.

[Brian S]

Thanks for the info. The respirator info I had was from way back, when it was still called 'mystery pneumonia'.

[CathyRyan]

That is with good care and not an overtaxed system. In one of the Time articles a doctor in China was quoted as saying the death rate was about 25% IIRC.

[CathyRyan]

In Vietnam (early on) only one person at the time the article was written had come off a respirator alive. That was a nurse. Her story was reposted her in the last day or so.

[Uncle Miltie]

The economic impact of a pandemic that primarily kills the elderly and immune compromised would be astounding. Hmmmmmm.

[Dog Gone]

If the disease becomes endemic I can't imagine how much this would cost. What is the cost of a three week hospital stay even if you're not one of the unlucky ones who must transferred into ICU?

Of course, with China letting the disease run rampant, and India's pathetic response to it as well, it certainly increases the chances. It would be damn shame if Toronto whips its outbreak only to get it again later. This could have been contained and eliminated.

[Pylot]

Is that a SARcastic remark?

[Uncle Miltie]

No, I'm series. If the elderly die, long term health care costs, social security payments and inheritance cash flows change dramatically. Similarly, AIDS patients world-wide would be swept up by the secondary SARS infections, reducing their health care burden, and more quickly orphaning millions of African children.

Like in the animal kingdom, the elderly and weak are sometimes devastated by disease. In mankind, the same is true, except that for us, the economic consequences would be hugh!