SARS is here to stay, but no need to panic

Times of India ^ | APRIL 27, 2003 | KALPANA JAIN

[Judith Anne]

I'm just wondering about the number of Toronto (and/or Canadian) cases that were in health care workers...I'm recalling the doctor who got it, treating a man whose SARS symptoms were masked by congestive heart failure...

Actually, to me it's a matter of concern if there are a lot of people getting mild cases of SARS, because that might mean that the disease would likely infect more of the people who are more vulnerable due to overwhelming infection, those who are on meds that lower their immune status.

Truthfully, I don't think there are thousands of mild cases, or we'd be seeing a bunch of random serious cases not related to any known index case or vector. In Canada, if I remember correctly, all the cases can be traced back to one grandmother who came to Canada from China...

[per loin]

There may have been a case in an apartment house that the Canucks could not trace, but other than that one, all were traceable. I reckon that either means that there are few mild cases, or that they cannot pass on a serious case of SARS.

Hong Kong says that they are now finding a few, who do not develop severe symptoms, but that they can still pass on a full dose of SARS.

[Judith Anne]

Thanks.

[First Amendment]

. But, till now, only 3 per cent of the infected have developed the acute form of the disease.

How can the death rate be higher than the rate of people getting the acute form of the disease??

[xkaydet65]

Back in '56 my Mom took me to Frisco to see her family. We went by train and had a five hour layover in Chicago. We had time to see the city and have a good meal, but we spent the entire time in the RR terminal because the city had been having a bad summer of polio outbreaks. Five hours for a seven year old was tough. I can imagine how tough it was on her. I have a feeling that this is what SARS will have in store for us.

[discostu]

Absolute. Of course SARS won't be gone after all that. Cold and flu season will now be cold flu and SARS season. It'll come around every year with the cold weather. Welcome to 1918 (that's when cold season became cold and flu season).

[discostu]

We know a nurse got it but she treated both of the first SARS patients in Canada and that was before it was identified and proper precautions were in place (actually I think with the second one some precautions were in place but not a lot.

It's kind of six of one half dozen of another. If there are lots of people getting mild cases then that means it's much more contagious than our current data would indicate, that's bad; but it also means it's a lot less deadly than our current data would indicate, that's good. One thing we also have to keep in mind is that every one is running quarantine protocol around SARS, that makes it a little tough to determine how many cases require hospitalization since we're putting them all in hospitals no matter what (all the detected ones anyway).

In other news WHO agrees with me, they say things a wrapping up everywhere but China. I'm not sure if I should feel more or less confident with WHO backing my position ;)

[Mamzelle]

It has been overhyped, but underhyped in other ways. I have read, "how is this any different than other flus? Flu kills people every day."

Consider this--one family member comes down with a flu, dies of it, and two other family members also become infected and die from it. That is unheard of in "regular" flus.

Consider--SARS-infected patient shows up at ER, infects the nurse who treats him, both die. Unheard-of with "regular" flus.

Actual numbers of acute presentation remain low compared to "regular" flus.

Strange bug.

[discostu]

Actually that's not unheard of at all in flu country, it's a disease, some people are more susceptible to it than others, some families are more susceptible. With SARS you also have the nurse who treated two improperly diagnosed SARS patients without safety protocols got SARS spent days at home before realizing she had SARS and her husband and two kids didn't even get the sniffles. That's how it goes. Because illness is such a random thing it you get some wierd stuff going on. The thing to remember is that the plural of anecdote isn't fact. The fact of SARS is that it's a poor transmitter with a low yet worrisome death rate. At least those are the facts so far, we must keep in mind that we've only recently gotten enough documented SARS patients to be able to do worthwhile statistical analysis and even with them way too many haven't run the course yet. It's going to be at least a week or two before we've got useful numbers to work with, and depending on what China does it could take even longer. Until then take confidence that we seem to be winning the war against SARS in the free world and keep the worrying to a minimum.

[per loin]

Welcome to 1918 (that's when cold season became cold and flu season).

Hmmmmm? Does that mean that the flu epidemics of 1830-33, 1847, 1855, 1889-90 did not happen?

[discostu]

Oops, bad reading on my part. The basic concept still stands, new diseases happen.

[per loin]

No, you read the article correctly. The author believes influenza began in 1918. When it comes to matters of fact, the Indian press is more creative than ours.

[discostu]

But I should have known better, I know about the flu and Hawaii that definitely predated 1918. I screwed up and I'm willing to take my lumps for it.

[per loin]

Excellent.

[Judith Anne]

Thanks for your thoughtful remarks.