Death Toll Tops 200 As Countries Struggle To Stem Spread Of Disease (SARS)

Sars Outbreak The cost to the global economy may reach £19bn, says WHO as a sense of crisis increases in China

The worldwide death toll from the Sars virus yesterday topped 200 as a sharp rise in casualties revealed that a hardcore of stricken countries was failing to stem the outbreak.

Among the 26 nations affected so far, a clear split has emerged. The majority, which has its relatively small number of cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) under control, and others where it is feared numbers are continuing to escalate.

Sars has now killed at least 205 people worldwide, out of more than 3,800 infected following the first-known case in China's Guangdong province. Deaths among young and previously healthy patients have raised concerns that the virus may have mutated into a more virulent form.

In China, there was an increased sense of crisis yesterday as two senior officials were sacked, a week-long national holiday was cancelled and there was a rare admission of how ill prepared the country had been. Twelve more people were also reported dead yesterday, bringing the number of deaths there to 79.

A senior health official said there were 1,814 probable cases, representing about half of the worldwide total, after a spurt of detected cases in Beijing. So far, Sars has not been detected in large rural areas but officials admitted the consequences if it went outside the large urban areas was "grim".

The World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates that the global cost of Sars could reach $30bn (£19m) as travel and large events are cancelled and people stay away from shops and restaurants.

Hong Kong has already been badly hit economically. A grim weekend was capped by the announcement of seven more deaths yesterday, taking the toll to 88, the highest in the world. Officials there also announced 12 deaths on Saturday, the highest one-day total recorded yet, but insisted yesterday that the situation had stabilised despite anticipated further deaths. The number of cases has reached 1,380 – second only to mainland China. More than 900 people remain in hospitals.

The outbreak in Canada – the largest outside Asia and where 14 people have died – has started to mirror Hong Kong, where healthy young people were catching the disease and dying, officials said. The country's largest medical emergency unit has been closed after four members of staff started to show symptoms.

Most cases have been linked to healthcare workers – and family members – in contact with the first Sars victim, who brought the disease to Toronto last month after a trip to Hong Kong. Nearly 7,000 people in the city have gone into a 10-day quarantine, including at least two who were forced into hospitals by police when they defied a court order.

In Singapore, where 16 people have died, an outbreak at its largest wholesale vegetable market raised fears that the virus had spread beyond hospitals and into the community. Dozens of police in face masks cleared and closed the market and put up barricades after three people who worked there contracted the virus. A taxi driver who took one of the workers to the market has also been infected, dealing a blow to the government's attempts to contain the disease in the city state's hospitals.

The health ministry was trying to trace those who might have been in contact with market workers. Up to 2,400 people are expected to be quarantined and there have been 177 confirmed cases in Singapore, the fourth highest in the world. The government has warned that the disease could lead to its worst-ever economic crisis.

Five people have died in Vietnam from suspected Sars but the outbreak has been stabilised. To prevent a similar crisis to China, it has proposed temporarily closing its northern border, which runs for 850 miles between the countries.

The proposal followed concerns about the effectiveness of inspections by immigration officials at checkpoints. Thaksin Shinawatra, the Prime Minister of Thailand, declared the country free of Sars on Saturday. Two of the seven people infected had died – a WHO doctor who caught it in Vietnam and a person from Hong Kong who was visiting relatives. The others were treated in hospital and discharged. Thailand is to host a meeting of South-east Asian countries and China later this month to discuss ways to overcome the economic effects of the outbreak.

Elsewhere in the region, Indonesia, which has had only one reported case, has deployed troops to help nurses and doctors to carry out health checks of workers returning from countries affected by the disease. South Korea, which has had no cases, is considering imposing a ban on blood donations from people arriving from affected countries, although there is no evidence it can be spread through blood.

Meanwhile, in Britain, all but one of the six suspected cases have now been released from hospital. Officials said the chances of catching the disease remained "extremely low" but dozens of schoolchildren from Asia remain at quarantine camps in Dorset and the Isle of Wight after returning to British boarding schools.

A 47-year-old Briton, who lives and works in Indonesia, was detained in hospital in Hong Kong after fleeing from Jakarta, where he had been ordered to remain in quarantine.

Do the math ... The death rate is increasing as SARS spreads. Based on the figures admitted to by this report the death rate has gone up from < 2.5% just three weeks ago to about 5.5% today. But there are other cases and more deaths which may have not been reported.

Bet the true death rate is already between 7% and 8%.

Very nasty virus indeed. The average flu virus kills less than < 1% and this killer is just starting. The Spanish Flu of 1918 started with a death rate on about 2.5% and then slowly built up to a killing rate of about 28%.

F'Chinese and their genetic virus mutation experiments.

OK, not to be paranoid but.......Now that they've confirmed that this bug lives on surfaces for 24+ hours, a whole new chain of infection vectors can appear. Air travelers who have been infected have now infected the interior of the aircraft. Same with any form of public transportation.

If it lives that long on exposed surfaces, I wonder about in a vacuum environment - as in let's say a production worker in China coughs into the packaging equipment, transferring the virus to that widget on its' way to Wal Mart. If it goes dormant in vacuum packaging, the 24 hour theory may be out the window as well.

No word on decontamination for those aircraft interiors.

If we're going to keep this disease under control here, we shouldn't be unloading a single damned container from China, or allowing any planes to land that have held infected people or packages, and given the large community of people from China and its' provinces in Canada I'd say our northern border should require all who are entering the US to stay confined in quarantine for 10 days. Same goes for goods. NO EXCEPTIONS.

It's a bitter economic pill to swallow, but it will be far better than the costs of facing this if it goes pandemic as well as incresing in virulence.

The Chinese spin meisters were saying, "Don't worry. 95% of people survive". That's spin. 88% of people infected are still in hospitals in HK. How many of those in the 88% group would be dead without aggressive care in a hospital? I think the distribution between deaths, recoveries and hospitalized will take a hard jump in the direction of deaths when the number of infected persons outnumbers the available hospital beds.

... let's say a production worker in China coughs into the packaging equipment, transferring the virus to that widget on its' way to Wal Mart.

That's a reasonable worry, but the disease has been around China for what, six months? and so far WalMart customers aren't falling over dead. Unless there's a very long latency period, it may be that this potential vector hasn't panned out.

"Bet the true death rate is already between 7% and 8%." I've read that the death rate in Canada is 9%.

Take a look at the latest figures. Twelve have died and 54 recovered in Canada. That makes death 18% of final resolutions

Hong Kong 81 deaths, 363 recoveries, death is also 18% of final resolutions. Singapore 16 deaths, 100 recoveries. Vietnam 5 deaths 46 recoveries.

Mainland China's death rate is way out of line of this (65 deaths, 1140 recoveries, 5% death rate) and I'm not sure I believe their numbers. I don't know what to make of the US's numbers at all

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