Who got it right and who got it wrong?

The following are predictions made by politicians and commentators at home and abroad regarding the likely course of the war in Iraq. Some were made before hostilities broke out on March 20 and some around March 30, when the rapid US advance towards Baghdad paused on the Euphrates river.

The Archbishop of Canterbury, Dr Rowan Williams, in The Telegraph Nov 5, 2002: In 1939, we risked our own lives and safety in resisting a tyranny. In this instance, we are more likely to risk the lives of hundreds and thousands in a region that could rapidly spiral down into chaos.

Leaked UN document Guardian, Feb 15, says: 1.5 million refugees will try to flee Iraq and 30 per cent of the country's under-fives would be at risk of death from malnutrition if war takes place.

Correlli Barnett, author of The Great War, writing in The Daily Mail, April 3: We were told that as Saddam's regime collapsed under the American hi-tech attack, the Iraqi people were going to rise up against him. They were going to welcome the American invaders with joy. They were going to brim over with gratitude for the priceless gift of 'democracy'.

But instead, we see the deeply-angered Iraqi people rallying behind Saddam in defence of their land against a foreign invader - just as in 1941, the Russian people rallied behind an even more awful tyrant, Josef Stalin, in resisting the Nazi invaders.

Richard Littlejohn, columnist, The Sun, Jan 14: This war could last for decades.

Robert Fisk, The Independent, 20 March: At the Alastrabak grocery store, I bought 25 loo rolls, a mountain of biscuits and a stack of red and green candles . . . After a siege or two - the 1982 Israeli siege of Beirut was my first - you develop an uncanny knack of knowing what to hunt for.

Gen Barry McCaffrey, the former Gulf war commander, Mar 25: We've never done anything like this with this modest a force at such a distance from its bases . . . If they [the Iraqis] actually fight . . . it's going to be brutal dangerous work, and we could take, bluntly, a couple to 3,000 casualties."

Simon Jenkins, columnist, The Times, Mar 28: Baghdad will be near impossible to conquer.

The Independent, Mar 30: We were told the war would be 'a cakewalk'; that 'hopefully we'll be in Baghdad in the next three or four days'. Why did they think it would be so easy?

Piers Morgan, Editor of the Daily Mirror, writing on March 31: The Daily Mirror will continue to report this war as it sees it, and as I sit here today I see a right bloody mess, frankly.

The Times, Mar 31. Headline: Generals dig in for long war. Assault on Baghdad put off for weeks.

Robert Fisk, The Independent, April 2: The Iraqi army's defences seem impenetrable.

Robert Fisk: Anyone who doubts that the Iraqi army is prepared to defend its capital should take the highway south of Baghdad. How, I kept asking myself, could the Americans batter their way through these defences? The Americans may say they are 'degrading' the country's defences, but there was little sign of that here Wednesday.

John Pilger in the Daily Mirror, April 5: [The Iraqis] are not keeping to the script; and their extraordinary resistance against such overwhelming odds has required intensified propaganda in Washington and London.

Andrew Stephen, New Statesman, Mar 31: And they thought it was going to be so easy. They really did believe it: that troops would be welcomed in Iraq, with flowers and hugs and kisses, as liberators for whom they had been waiting so long.

George Galloway, an anti-war Labour MP: I don't believe these wolves [Bush and Blair] will be able to enter Baghdad and occupy Iraq.

Tam Dalyell, Labour MP: President Bush and the Prime Minister may find the biggest weapon of mass destruction before the gates of Baghdad is the April sun.

Tony Lloyd, MP, Feb 26: We know that during the last Gulf War some 100,000 people died as a direct or indirect consequence of military action. I believe that any military intervention driving all the way to Baghdad will cost more lives, both directly and indirectly.

Tony Benn, Mar 25: The US has miscalculated. It seems that the Iraqis are comfortably waiting for the Americans to arrive in order to choose the appropriate time to attack.

Geoff Hoon, Defence Secretary, early April: The Iraqi people will soon be rid of Saddam, his barbaric regime and suffering he has visited on them.

Tony Blair: That we will encounter more difficulties and anxious moments in the days ahead is certain. But no less certain, indeed more so, is coalition victory

Iain Duncan Smith: No one will shed a tear over this man's departure, I tell you

Donald Rumsfeld, US defence secretary, Mar 30: The war "could last six days, six weeks, I doubt six months".

R W Apple, New York Times, April 1: Street by street fighting in the rubble of Baghdad and other cities - an eventuality that American strategists have long sought to avoid - now looks more likely. Saddam's aides have promised savage resistance. If it materialises, it could produce large coalition casualties, challenging American resolve, and equally large Iraqi civilian casualties, with dire consequences for the coalition's attempt to picture itself as the liberator of Iraq.

Claude Imbert, editor of Le Point Mar 28: This expedition of Bush is fuzzy, erratic and in its objectives fantastical.

Editorial, Marianne, Mar 31: The Iraqis are resisting, bitterly, fiercely. The army is holding firm. The 'crusaders' have not met any happy crowds. Thanks to Bush, Blair, Aznar, if you liked the world of the 1930s, you'll love the 2000s.

Article in Die Zeit, April 3: It was supposed to be a stroll. Now a long bloody war is threatening in Iraq.

Iraqi Parliamentary Speaker, Saadoon Hammadi, on Saddam Hussein: He will be in front of everyone. He will fight and guide our country to victory.

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2 posted on 04/10/2003 2:14:56 AM PDT by Support Free Republic (Your support keeps Free Republic going strong!)

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