Posted on 04/05/2003 6:10:58 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
ASHINGTON, April 5 — After Bush administration officials and many American lawmakers predicted that terrorist attacks were nearly inevitable because of the war in Iraq, there has been little evidence that Al Qaeda or other networks are preparing to strike against the United States, senior government officials say.
As a result, intelligence analysts are turning their attention to a new potential threat, the likelihood that a protracted American presence in Iraq after the war could stir violence both in Iraq, the rest of the Middle East, in the United States and against American interests around the globe.
"I can't believe that they are going to do nothing after Iraq," said one senior counterterrorism official. "I've been frankly astonished at how quiet it's been. I've got to believe that somehow, some way they are going to try to hit us. It's just a matter of time."
With Middle Eastern leaders like President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt predicting that the war in Iraq would create "a hundred new Osama bin Ladens," intelligence analysts said the United States security forces could face lone suicide bombers and the threat of larger-scale attacks.
A long and unpopular American occupation in Iraq could further inflame the already strong anti-American sentiments in the Arab world, causing extremist groups to engage in terrorist acts, the officials said.
Still, terror organizations like Al Qaeda appear to have been largely unmoved by Saddam Hussein's denunciations of the United States and his calls for an uprising in the Arab world against the American-led war in Iraq.
American officials have said there is little evidence of potential terrorist plots against United States interests, either in the country or overseas, since the war in Iraq began. In fact, the kind of chatter that has led the Department of Homeland Security to increase the nation's threat warning levels has decreased since the beginning of the war.
Nevertheless, the administration has maintained the government's color-coded terrorist threat level at orange, representing a heightened threat of terrorist activity, because of fears that the war will eventually provoke terrorism.
But intelligence and law enforcement officials said there was scant evidence that either Al Qaeda or any other major terrorist organization was planning an attack in the near future. One senior intelligence official said he had seen very little credible evidence that any terrorist plots were imminent in the United States.
Another American official cautioned that terrorist threat reporting received by the C.I.A. and other agencies had not significantly declined, but acknowledged that it had not increased since the start of the war as many in the intelligence community had expected.
American officials say several factors may be limiting the threats for now. Among them is last month's capture of Al Qaeda's operations chief, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, in Pakistan, which appears to have inflicted severe damage on Al Qaeda's ability to conduct major operations against the United States.
Mr. Mohammed, who is in United States custody in an undisclosed location, is believed to have been serving as the clearinghouse for operational matters for the terrorist group since it lost its base in Afghanistan.
Some American counterterrorism experts suspect that a number of Qaeda operatives have gone underground in the wake of his capture, since he almost certainly knew about many of their plans. Officials say that Mr. Mohammed has been talking to his interrogators, although it is unclear whether he is providing accurate information.
But some of these officials warned that other terror networks could quickly energize their followers to change tactics. They said the war in Iraq had already provided some warning signs of potential terrorism that could become a grim reality in postwar Iraq, where some analysts fear that resistance could seriously undermine reconstruction efforts.
Since the war began there have been two suicide car bomb attacks, including one carried out by two Iraqi women. Such attacks could continue as a terrorist weapon in a country where intelligence officials believe that Mr. Hussein's loyalists have access to military explosives and bomb-making materials.
Mr. Hussein has called for 4,000 Arabs to fight for Iraq, and in a statement read by one of his aides on Thursday, he said, "My dear brothers and sons and beloved, you, I'm calling you fighters here, men and women, friends everywhere."
But intelligence officials have said there are few indications that people are trying to enter Iraq from neighboring countries to defend Mr. Hussein's government. "We've been watching, but we haven't seen it," one military intelligence official said.
The absence of a Qaeda response to the war in Iraq has led some counterterrorism officials to doubt the administration's contentions that Osama bin Laden's followers had found a refuge in Iraq, even though Mr. Bush and his senior advisers had said that Al Qaeda's presence in Iraq was an important reason to remove Mr. Hussein.
The absence of a terrorist reprisal against the United States in response to the war has come as an unexpected relief to officials at the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Central Intelligence Agency, where many believed that terrorist acts were almost certain once the war began.
Many believed that a strike could be sponsored either directly by the Iraqi government or by a terrorist organization like Al Qaeda, which would seek to take advantage of the war as a justification for further attacks on the United States.
Some senior administration officials assumed that a terrorist attack against American interests was a given, and part of the cost of toppling Mr. Hussein.
On the eve of the war, Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge told the public that the terrorist threat level was being raised, not because of any threatening new intelligence, but because the war seemed likely to provoke terrorism. Many cities took security precautions that remain in effect.
The likelihood of a terrorist response to the war was a major factor cited by many critics of the administration, including a number of Congressional Democrats, for opposing the war.
Last fall, George J. Tenet, the director of central intelligence, briefly sparked a political controversy when he provided Congress with a letter that included declassified portions of a C.I.A. assessment that Iraq would be more likely to resort to terrorism if attacked.
Other major Middle Eastern terrorist groups, notably Hezbollah and Hamas, have not launched attacks against the United States.
Many American experts say that Hezbollah is far more adept at conducting ruthlessly professional terrorist operations than Al Qaeda, and officials fear that it could wreak havoc if it begins to take aim at American interests.
But Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, is largely controlled by Iran's intelligence apparatus, and Syria is also able to influence its activities. After conducting a wave of anti-American terrorist actions in the 1980's, Hezbollah has in recent years avoided plots against the United States, focusing on Israel instead.
Many American experts say that the Iranian government secretly made a decision sometime in the 1990's to order Hezbollah not to launch attacks against American targets. As a result, counterterrorist officials say that Hezbollah will not begin a new wave of terrorism against the United States unless both Syria and Iran sanction such actions.
So far, Iran, a longtime adversary of Mr. Hussein, has remained on the sideline as American forces have sought to topple the Iraqi government.
Hamas, a Palestinian-based extremist group, has long focused its attention on Israel, and has turned to the United States for fund-raising. Because its financial health relies on access to donations from Arabs living in the United States, Hamas has always avoided attacks against American targets. Despite the growing resentment toward the United States military action in Iraq on the part of Palestinians living in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, officials say they have not seen any significant change in Hamas's policy of not singling out Americans.
I am not sure I buy this completely but it is plausible. The IRA never struck America despite our support of Britain either because much of their money came from Irish Americans (and sad to say- much from my fellow Irish American Bostonians). But the irrationality of "suicide" bombers makes me suspect the are not ruled by rational thought.
B*st*rds!
No mention of the anti war folks saying how the war would cause us to be less safe because of an increased risk of terrorism. Guess the left is yet again not held to their words.
This total BS. The links have been established. Guess this guy is not watching FOX.
So9
Unfortunately the leftist elite media cannot comprehend this. But then, they have difficulty comprehending anything outside their collective delusional system.
They just don't get it, nor will they ever.
No wondering from me.
Absolutely!
But this war is exposing their warped thinking rather well!
They got the tail wagging the dog again. Mr. Mohammed has been the "clearinghouse" for terrorist attacks on America since long before he had any association with al-Qaeda -- basically, since the end of the Gulf War, in fact. Perhaps "clearinghouse" isn't the right word, then. Perhaps "prime contractor" would be a better term.
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