From tomorrow's Izvestiya:
Using Mind and Conscience
Vladimir Putin determines Russia's relationship to the Iraqi war
(Aleksandr Arkhangel'sk, Semen Novoprudskiy)
In Tambov Vladimir Putin met with regional journalists. Answering a question from our own correspondent for the first time since the beginning of Iraqi war he most clearly spelled out the Russian position: "For political and economic reasons Russia is not interested in the defeat of the United States. We are interested in transferring the solution of this problem on the United Nations."
The formula proposed by Putin is maximally pragmatic. It allows for Russia - which objected to the beginning of military operations - to preserve political face and simultaneously leaves a bridge for settling its own geopolitical and financial interests in postwar Iraq.
Until the Tambov meeting many observers had the vague feeling that Russia had not defined her stand, that she had missed another splendid chance to take her place as the independent player on the international scene, just as Putin had rigidly joined her to the anti-terrorist front after September 11th. At first Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov demonstrated miracles of flexibility, deviating from any clear account of a Russian position. Then he ceased to appear on any television programs, even though according to our information all channels in turn invited him.
And now the decision has been made, in spite of the silent majority and in accordance with the interests of the country. Russia does not side with Iraq, however much this is wanted by our military and political elite. She does not support the idea of a preventive war, however much that is wanted by the Americans and English. She simply selects the "smaller of the ashes" (lesser of two evils) and insists on the return to the process of making international decisions in the lawful framework of the United Nations. This is a position simultaneously both tactical and strategic, and actually makes it possible to preserve a faithfulness to her declared ideals while considering her current interests.
The economic interests of Russia in Iraq itself yield to an arithmetic calculation. The sum total of Russian petroleum contracts with the regime of Saddam Hussein are on the order of US$30 billions. About $8 billion is Iraqi debt to Russia. We will not obtain this during any distribution. In the UN program of "Oil for Food" Russia earned, according to various estimates, $1-2 billion per year. Bush's administration does not hide that in post-Saddam Iraq the US would want to monitor entire output and sale of oil for awhile. According to some information, the Americans have already picked out a candidate to manage the entire postwar Iraqi oil output - a subsidary of the Dutch- British firm Royal Dutch Shell. This means that the fate of all Russia's existing petroleum contracts depends on the US. There is no way the Americans will yield their right as main distributor of "contracts" for the reconstruction of Iraq to the UN. Therefore Russia has no reason to radically quarrel with America, and in so risk losing everything.
Even if theoretically we assume that the allies lose the war, Saddam would never be able to fulfill the conditions of his petroleum contracts with Russia - since there would once again exist sanctions against Baghdad. These would block the development of any new petroleum deposits, and so this is the reason why the Russian companies agreed on Iraq.
And thus, to say nothing of the importance of Russian-American commercial and economic relations, the only alternative with which Russia can rely on a presence in the Iraqi oil fields is a victory by the US. But the only alternative with which she can pretend to maintaining and amplifying her new role in the world is a demonstration of her faithfulness to her declared principles, upon consideration of the changing circumstances.
Just like France and Germany caved, so too will Russia. Nothing impresses more than success.