Karbala Gap Holds The Key To Allies' March On Capital

Independent (UK) ^ | 3-29-2003 | John Lichfield

[blam]

Karbala Gap holds the key to Allies' march on capital

By John Lichfield
29 March 2003

The first frontal battles between US troops and Republican Guards could happen this weekend – though military experts believe the Battle for Baghdad proper may be several weeks away.

Senior Allied officers predicted yesterday an imminent battle between the US Third Infantry division and the Medina and Hammurabi divisions of Republican Guards for control of the Karbala Gap, a strip of land 25 miles wide (16km) which is the key to the approach to the Iraqi capital from the south-west.

US Air Force and RAF planes pounded the Guards positions for a second day yesterday as 20,000 US troops and their tanks moved up the west bank of the Euphrates river from Najaf, apparently preparing for an attack.

General Mike Jackson, Chief of the British General Staff, said: "The conventional fight ... with the Republican Guard is not too far away, I suspect."

Senior US commanders in the field have also told American correspondents that the Karbala Gap – described as "the last stepping-stone to Baghdad" – would be their next objective. Military experts counselled scepticism, warning that the military briefings may be intended to confuse the Iraqis and that the first blow could fall elsewhere.

In any case, the experts said, the US was unlikely to launch its main assault on Baghdad until the first armoured reinforcements arrived from the US in two to three weeks' time. The US has only 40,000 to 50,000 fighting troops south of Baghdad and relatively little armour (although total air superiority).

Some form of early victory over the Republican Guards would, however, be of immense propaganda value to the Allies in their attempts to calm jittery opinion at home and convince Iraqis that the Saddam Hussein regime is doomed. The capture of the Karbala Gap, a densely populated strip of marshes and farmland between the Euphrates and Lake Razaza, would give the Americans command of the plains south of Baghdad.

Fierce fighting continued yesterday much further south, around Nasiriyah, and to the east, near Diwaniyah, as US Marines came under attack once again from flying columns of Iraqi "irregular" troops, seeking to harass supply lines and slow the American advance. Four US Marines were reported missing after fighting near Nasiriyah.

The Marines are engaged in "blue-collar warfare," said Lieutenant Colonel BP McCoy, commanding officer of the Marine 3rd Battery, 4th Regiment. "There's no magic solution to it. It is just the hard-grinding work of patrols."

At least one American was reported killed in fighting and two marines died after they were run over by one of their own vehicles as they slept.

Most units of the US Third Infantry Division were said to be well north of the town of Najaf, advancing towards Karbala, which is only 50 miles from the capital.

"The Karbala Gap is the most direct route to Baghdad," a senior US officer told The New York Times. "It is a choke point. Once we go through, it allows us more freedom of movement between Karbala and Najaf. Once through, we have more effective range for weapons. It allows us to target or monitor the Medina and Hammurabi divisions and allows us to cover Baghdad itself."

Such open talk about military plans caused some experts to express scepticism. The verbal concentration on Karbala may be an attempt to confuse, they suggested.

Other US military sources indicated, however, that they thought that the Gap itself was relatively lightly defended and that the Guards were dug in mostly in the plains beyond. The US might therefore be building up the importance of Karbala in the expectation of a relatively easy advance.

The problem – as elsewhere – may be the holy city of Karbala itself (the site of the death of Imam Hussein, a Shia martyr and grandson of the prophet Mohammed). US troops by-passed cities further south, such as Nasirayha and Najaf, only to find themselves under constant attack from flying columns of Iraqi irregular troops, secret police and conscripted civilians.

The strength of the Republican Guards divisions defending the Gap is unclear. Each division has around 15,000 men. Elements of both divisions, regarded as the best in the Iraqi army, are thought to be positioned elsewhere. They have been under constant attack from the air – sandstorms permitting – for six days. According to one US intelligence report, desertions and transfers of Guards to stiffen other units may have reduced their strength to 60 per cent.

[Mr. Lucky]

I can't help it, but an article about the RAF attacking enemy tank formations conjurs up the image of Supermarine Spitfires diving out of a cloudbank, machineguns blasting. Together, we kicked ass in that war (over German and French objection) too,

[ez]

What would Sun-Tsu do? Feign a thrust through the Karbala Gap and while their forces are responding, scoot around the Lake. Then take the bridge at Al Fallujah and straight in to Baghdad.

[oceanview]

yes, this is right. Karbala is a ruse designed to hold the RGs, while bombing along their rear keeps them from retreating into baghdad. the real attack will come from the west.

[RightWhale]

Kabballa Gap is also what Saddam refers to in his Stalingrad plans.

[Paraclete]

Senior US commanders in the field have also told American correspondents that the Karbala Gap – described as "the last stepping-stone to Baghdad" – would be their next objective. Military experts counselled scepticism, warning that the military briefings may be intended to confuse the Iraqis and that the first blow could fall elsewhere.

Do you suppose a huge ruse is going on . . . Marines hit from the Southeast (where they're supposedly bogged down)?

[John H K]

Spitfires were rarely used for ground attack; it was Hurricanes, and then Typhoons.

[colorado tanker]

Interesting article, but I'd be alert for misinformation and strategery.

[TheLooseThread]

To anyone who has ever read or studied military battles the outcome is clear.

We have superior firepower.
We have air dominance.
We have mobility.
We can cycle troops to keep them fresh.
We have secure supply lines (despite media myth).

The enemy has inferior weapons
The can not move without being decimated.
Their troops have nowhere to rest.
Their supply lines don't exist.

The saying is that privates talk tactics and generals talk logistics. Any supply trucks reaching the Medina division? Doubt it. Fresh water? Food?

In WWII, once you surrounded the enemy with ground forces it was over for them. Why? Because they no longer had supply lines.

The media doesn't understand, but the Medina divsion (RG) is surrounded. Our ground forces are part of it. But our air dominance "surrounds" them by not allowing supplies to get through.

Every time you see a media graphic of the Medina RG division sw of baghdad, view it as if it were surrounded by coalition forces. It is over for them already.

[jwalsh07]

At least one American was reported killed in fighting and two marines died after they were run over by one of their own vehicles as they slept.

Ah crap. God bless'em. I know it happens in training too, it's just such a damn waste.

[jwalsh07]

Thought you might find this of interest.

[wretchard]

"The Marines are engaged in "blue-collar warfare," said Lieutenant Colonel BP McCoy, commanding officer of the Marine 3rd Battery, 4th Regiment. "There's no magic solution to it. It is just the hard-grinding work of patrols."

No one in the press is asking where the Marines are going. Their assumption is that the Marines are just walking around in circles in an appropriately journalistic manner. And just where are they going? To Al Kut on the Tigris, of course, to establish a Euphrates-Tigris line that will cut Mesopotamia in two. It is the killer blow in strategic terms. Historically, the US Army always cuts enemy countries in two before closing on their city redoubts.

The best predictor of what will happen at Baghdad is what is happening in Basra. Basra is a major city of a million people. Look at Basra and see how Tommy Franks reduces a city. You can predict US casualties in Baghdad by scaling up British casualties at Basra. And does anyone doubt that Basra will fall? The force ratios are interesting, too. The Brits are reducing Basra with a single mech infantry brigade. The US has two divisions in the Baghdad area and can bring in another soon.

The real thing to watch is the development of the logistical bases. War, at the strategic level, is all logistics. The present force of 60,000 men needs 4,500 tons a day in consumables. The 4 ID will add a burden of 2,000 per day. And we're not talking about feeding the civilians yet. That's why the seizures of H2, H3, Talil, Basur and Umm Qasar (to mention only the ones I know about) were the decisive battles of the war. And, get this, they were planned long before the press started raising objections about "underrating" the Iraqi enemy.

[Mike Darancette]

a strip of land 25 miles wide (16km)

Is it 25 miles wide or 16 KM (10 miles) wide?

I sure wish we had a Northern Front accross the river.

[colorado tanker]

Very interesting. Is there a link to that map? It's more detailed than most I've seen.

[jwalsh07]

Start Here, Some Good Stuff

[uncbob]

I thinks it was Napoleon who said" Before a battle is even begun the logisticians have decided its outcome"

[Dead Dog]

Sun Tsu's ghost is riding with the II MEU.

[edwin hubble]

"Do you suppose a huge ruse is going on . . . Marines hit from the Southeast (where they're supposedly bogged down)?"

Or the 2nd Marine Expeditionary Force from the West (Jordan). Note that there aren't embedded troops in the North or West. Only the South (and Southeast).

[edwin hubble]

correction:
Note that there aren't embedded REPORTERS in the North or West.

[Diddley]

To anyone who has ever read or studied military battles the outcome is clear. . . . . . .

Very good information.