NORTH KOREA NOW RUMORED ON 'SEMI-WAR' STATUS; KIM JONG IL/TOP LEADERS GO INTO STRATETIC RECLUSE

Chosun Ilbo Daily, Seoul (English Translation) ^ | 28 March 2003 | Chosun Ilbo, Seoul (English Translation)

[AmericanInTokyo]

Kim Jong-il Scarce, Conjectures Plentiful

by Chosun Ilbo Daily Reporter Kim In-gu (ginko@chosun.com)

The North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has not appeared in public for 43 days, observers said, triggering speculation that he putting his country in a war posture. Mr. Kim was absent from the Supreme People's Assembly meeting on Wednesday; his last public appearance was Feb. 12 at the Russian Embassy in Pyongyang. Experts on North Korea say Kim's withdrawal is deliberate and that North Korea has gone into a semibelligerent state since the outbreak of the Iraqi war. Sixty-one other top-level North Korean officials were absent from the assembly meeting (in Pyongyang).

One expert, Cho Myung-chul at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, who was a professor at Kim Il Sung University before defecting to the South, said that the 61 absentees would be commanding officers and that it seemed North Korea was in a state of war. Another North Korea expert said that North Koreans would take Kim's absence from the assembly meeting to mean that they are under an emergency situation.

Experts pointed to other signs that Pyongyang is getting unsteady: that excluded from the meeting were the cabinet minister's report and mention of this year's budget, and that the government is selling loans to the public for the first time in its existence. Also, Pyongyang hiked its military spending as a ratio of the budget by 0.5 percentage points this year, to 15.4 percent, and has told the public to increase its preparedness.

[IncPen]

NK ping

[Pan_Yans Wife]

I take the Korean publications with a box of salt... remember their recent news pieces saying that they had successfully launched missles into Alaska? I wonder what the population thought about that? The missles were launched, and America didn't bomb them to hell? The missles were launched and the Americans fell to their knees? The missles were launched and America is so big and powerful that it didn't even notice, let alone flinch?

[bart99]

Hmmmmmm

With ALL the leaders in a bunker somewhere, maybe we should do what we did in Iraq..... a few cruise missles followed by a few bunker busters.

Oh... sorry. Not that I think North Korea is dangerous or anything.. *sigh*

[Brilliant]

It's interesting that Saddam is also in hiding. Possibly, Jung-Il's associates decided to take him out?

[kabar]

Time to take our troops out and let South Korea take on the burden of defending themselves. It seems like the majority of the population views the US as the biggest threat to peace--even more than Kim Jong Il. We'll provide the nuclear umbrella. South Korea can "Roh" its own boat.

[AmericanInTokyo]

specify the S Korean publications you take with a box of salt, please

[chilepepper]

How would Japan react to the US taking out N Korea with nukes?

[Celissa]

One fully belligerent nuke could cure this attitude problem.
One happily grinning Marine sniper could cure it quicker...

[Celissa]

Agreed.
Apparently we are such a horrible occupying force that we MUST be dealt with.

Pull our boys out of S.Korea, Germany, and any other whiny freakin' country and let them take care of themselves. Our boys can come home, protect our borders, seaports and shorelines, be close to their families, and spend their money in AMERICAN businesses. We can spend the money we save on raises for the men in uniform and developing alternative fuel sources. Maybe then my dream can be realized: All the tinpot Islamonazis in the M.E. can grub in the dirt like they did before they got rich off us.

But that's just me.

[NewYorker]

their own subjective long-term concerns

Hmmm. How badly do we want to get our butts kicked?

[mewzilla]

I wonder if someone tried to kill that little wart and that's why he's done a bunk.

[Space Wrangler]

I think this is the point where we tell China to put up or shut up. Get control of your neighbor, or else keep your mouth shut when we have to do it. It looks like NK really won't settle for anything less than a full confrontation. This is probably China's way of confronting us through proxy though. Iraq is only the jumping off point of conflicts to come it seems.

[gridlock]

I was reading an analysis of the North Korean actions that concluded that North Korea is attempting to draw the US into bilateral negotiations to settle the current crisis, and that the US was ignoring the situation to avoid this, and is insisting that the crisis be settled regionally. Previous bilateral negotiations with the US, including Clinton's framework agreement on nuclear proliferation, have largely consisted on bribing Pyongyang to behave with money, fuel or food. The game now is for Pyongyang to create a serious crisis while the US is stretched by other committments, which would put them in an advantageous position to extort a rich payday.

Unfortunately for North Korea, the US is not taking the bait. Instead we are encourating North Korea to deal with their regional rivals, China, South Korea and Japan. Unfortunately for Pyongyang, these three are much more likely to motivate with the stick than the carrot.

It's a gutsy move by Washington. But North Korea has shown time and again that they will not stay bought. If bilateral negotiations resulted in a big payout for Pyongyang, it might keep the peace for a few years, but they would misbehave again when the money ran out. So now the US is basically "double-dog-daring" them to committ suicide, or to make peace. It does put them into a rather tidy box.

Of course this strategy is not without risk. But I think the previous pattern of knuckling under and buying them off yet again is doomed to failure, and will only reward them for further bad behavior.

[Darksheare]

They know we're onto them, and their deals with Iraq.

[Mystix]

the reason were not getting involved i think is because we know that we can only buy them off with one thing. Removal of american forces atleast to australia, and they would be happy to have us, but they might just demand that we get pulled back to pearl harbor. This is what they're trying to accomplish, I can feel it in my bones.

[wjeanw]

I suppose it is vain to hope some N Korean official left topside might take the opportunity to lock these nuts up for good in their underground bunkers?

[Eric in the Ozarks]

when have they not been "semi-belligerent"

[nanny]

Sounds like a plan to me - but you know we are a 'global community now' and we are putting making money (for some) ahead of protecting and preserving this country.

This was one of the fears stated regarding getting involved in a war - that N../S. Korea, Pakistan/ India, and China/Taiwan might heat up if we are occupied elsewhere - I hope it doesn't come to pass.

I second the motion, bring all our soldiers home, place them on our border, send all illegals and all legal miscreants back to their homeland, stop the H1B and other such programs, seriously curtail immigration, give incentives to companies to operate in the US rather than incentives to operate outside, develop alternative fuels and our oil fields, tell Mexico and China to get lost and rebuild America - it needs help, badly.

And of course, for all of those who think FRance bashing is so important - they can continue to not buy French Wine or Brie cheese (assuming many of them ever did).

[Cachelot]

NORTH KOREA NOW RUMORED ON 'SEMI-WAR' STATUS; KIM JONG IL/TOP LEADERS GO INTO STRATETIC RECLUSE

Translation: NK is terminally miffed and has no face, Kim goes to his room to sulk.

[Ebony-Patriot]

It's nice to know someone has done their homework!

Also, North Korea ALWAYS gets froggy around the time we conduct Joint Military Excersises with the South.