Posted on 03/21/2003 2:02:45 AM PST by Knuckle Sandwich Combo
As you will see, the list includes major government centers (Philadelphia, Miami, Sacramento, Washington, D.C.), cities with extensive industry (Detroit, Houston, San Jose), major business centers (Chicago, Miami, Philadelphia), important media centers (New York, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C.), major seaports (Newport News, Oakland, San Diego, Tampa), and important military facilities (Colorado Springs, Honolulu, Long Beach, Norfolk, San Francisco).
The federal government is providing extensive training for police and emergency workers in these 120 cities, including preparation for conventional (e.g., bomb), biological, chemical, and radiological (dirty bomb) attacks. However ...
The short answer is no, they are not. So if you live in or within 50 miles of these cities, you should consider yourself at significant risk for the duration of the War on Terror, which President Bush says could last as long as 50 years.
Fifty miles should be considered the minimal safe distance from an at risk; city. The reason is that in event of even a small radiological or nuclear attack (5-20 kiloton weapon), lethal radiation and fallout will be carried by prevailing winds at least that far. In plain English, if the winds are blowing away from you, you will probably survive if you are 10-20 miles away. However, if winds are blowing toward you, you will probably be dead in a few days. Similarly, in event of a major biological attack, winds and fleeing survivors could easily carry pathogens at least 50 miles.
In the event a more serious attack, you may need to be as much as 100-300 miles away from a target city to survive.
While the government is now attempting to train emergency personnel in the 120 cities at greatest risk, please recognize it will take many years before most cities are even minimally prepared. Even then, government assistance is absolutely no guarantee that there will be enough drugs, water and food to go around for everyone in the event of a radiological, nuclear, or biological attack, which could put hundreds of thousands, even millions of people at risk. In many cases, the consequences will be nationwide.
Furthermore, there are many biological weapons for which no effective treatments exist, and the only protection is to not be anywhere in the area when people are exposed, and to get out before you and your family are exposed.
Also, in a crisis, expect emergency facilities including hospitals and medical clinics to be quickly overwhelmed. In fact, they are likely to be reservoirs of disease and contagion.
On June 22-23, 2001, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) conducted what they term a senior-level war game examining the likely consequences of a smallpox outbreak in the U.S. Again, let me emphasis this is an exercise based on high-level computer analysis and prediction, not an actual occurrence.
The results were alarming: During the exercise, smallpox was projected to spread to 25 states and 15 foreign countries. By the 13th day of the exercise, a total of 16,000 smallpox cases have been reported in 25 states. But that's just the beginning.
By the end of the exercise, the National Security Council projects that in worst-case conditions, the third generation of cases could conceivably comprise as many as 3,000,000 cases of smallpox and lead to as many as 1,000,000 deaths. (Shining Light on Dark Winter; Center for Civilian Biodefense Strategies, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, Electronically published 19 February 2002.)
Other conclusions of the Dark Winter study:
This last point to me is the most important lesson of Dark Winter: To survive you need to prepare in advance.
For more information on Dark Winter, check out the collection of articles here and here. The last link is from the University of Chicago.
120 Cities Most at Risk
|
|
State | City |
Alabama | Birmingham |
Mobile | |
Montgomery | |
Alaska | Anchorage |
Arkansas | Little Rock |
Arizona | Phoenix |
Mesa | |
Tucson | |
California | Anaheim |
Bakersfield | |
Fremont | |
Fresno | |
Glendale | |
Huntington Beach | |
Long Beach | |
Los Angeles | |
Modesto | |
Oakland | |
Riverside | |
San Bernardino | |
San Diego | |
San Francisco | |
Santa Ana | |
San Jose | |
Sacramento | |
Stockton | |
|
|
Colorado | Aurora |
Colorado Springs | |
Denver | |
District of Columbia | Washington |
Florida | Fort Lauderdale |
Hialeah | |
Jacksonville | |
Miami | |
Orlando | |
St. Petersburg | |
Tampa | |
Georgia | Atlanta |
Columbus | |
Hawaii | Honolulu |
Illinois | Chicago |
Indiana | Fort Wayne |
Indianapolis | |
Iowa | Des Moines |
Kansas | Kansas City |
Wichita | |
Kentucky | Lexington |
Louisville | |
Louisiana | Baton Rouge |
Metaire | |
New Orleans | |
Shreveport | |
Maryland | Baltimore |
Massachusetts | Boston |
Springfield | |
Worcester | |
Michigan | Detroit |
Grand Rapids | |
Warren | |
Minnesota | Minneapolis |
St. Paul | |
Mississippi | Jackson |
Missouri | Kansas City |
St. Louis | |
Nebraska | Lincoln |
Omaha | |
Nevada | Las Vegas |
New Jersey | Jersey City |
Newark | |
New Mexico | Albuquerque |
New York | Buffalo |
New York | |
Rochester | |
Syracuse | |
Yonkers | |
North Carolina | Charlotte |
Greensboro | |
Raleigh | |
Ohio | Akron |
Cincinnati | |
Cleveland | |
Columbus | |
Dayton | |
Toledo | |
Oklahoma | Oklahoma City |
Tulsa | |
Oregon | Portland |
Pennsylvania | Philadelphia |
Pittsburgh | |
Rhode Island | Providence |
Tennessee | Chattanooga |
Knoxville | |
Memphis | |
Nashville | |
Texas | Amarillo |
Arlington | |
Austin | |
Corpus Christi | |
Dallas | |
El Paso | |
Fort Worth | |
Garland | |
Houston | |
Irving | |
Lubbock | |
San Antonio | |
Utah | Salt Lake City |
Virginia | Arlington |
Chesapeake | |
Newport News | |
Norfolk | |
Richmond | |
Virginia Beach | |
Washington | Seattle |
Spokane | |
Tacoma | |
Wisconsin | Madison |
Milwaukee |
sw
How can that be? Knoxville is east of Chattanooga. I'm so confused.
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