UN Weapons Inspector Bill Tierney weighs in [drops bomb, on Hannity & Colmes]!

Fox News Channel ^ | 1/27/03 | Hannity & Colmes

[robowombat]

Not the first time this place has been mentioned.

Did Iraq Detonate a Nuclear Weapon in 1989?
Two recent British reports have publicized allegations that Iraq detonated a gun-method highly enriched uranium nuclear device underneath a lake in September 1989, a test which is said to have gone undetected by UN inspectors after the Gulf War. The allegations, attributed to Iraqi defectors and others, have been publicized first by a set of stories in the Sunday Times of London on February 25, and secondly by a documentary shown on BBC 2 on March 3. Since journalist Gwynne Roberts was involved in both reports, they probably should be treated as a single story.

The story has the advantage of circumstantial detail, though the arguments against its being true are also considerable. Much summarized, the Sunday Times story — which has been published online at

http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/sti/2001/02/25/stifgnmid03001.html and http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/sti/2001/02/25/stirevnws01015.html

claimed that Roberts was approached by an Iraqi in the Kurdish-controlled region of northern Iraq in January 1998. The Iraqi, known by the pseudonym "Leone", claimed to be a nuclear engineer who had worked at Tuwaitha, one of Iraq's key nuclear centers. He said that a prototype weapon using a gun-style detonation had been completed. He claimed that six gun-style nuclear devices, but without fissile material, had been purchased from the then-Soviet Union in the 1980s. The fissile material was acquired from South Africa via Brazil, some 20 to 50 kilograms of highly enriched uranium. "Leone" reportedly claimed that France had also supplied highly enriched uranium after the Israeli attack on the Osirak reactor in 1981. The first test, according to "Leone", had been conducted underground under Lake Rezzaza, some 150 km southwest of Baghdad, at 10:30 am on September 19, 1989. It was reportedly a 10-kiloton explosion, It reportedly created a seismic event measuring 2.7 on the Richter scale. The test was supposedly "decoupled", a method of suspending the device in an open space in such a way that it does not register its full seismic force.

According to "Leone", there were two separate nuclear projects in Iraq. The one which detonated the alleged successful test was called "Group Four", and was working on a gun-style bomb; the other was working on an implosion bomb, and it was the program which was discovered and described by UN inspectors after the war. (A gun-style bomb, like that used on Hiroshima, fires two elements of fissile material into each other to produce critical mass; an implosion bomb uses shaped explosives to implode elements together, and is potentially more powerful, but much harder to design.) Group Four is said to have been headed by a "Dr. Khalid Ibrahim Sayeed", and not to have been discovered by the UN inspectors. The Sunday Times report quoted David Kay, one of the most prominent inspectors, as having acknowledged hearing of Group Four. The report quoted other Iraqi defectors and reporter Roberts claimed to have been shown a letter said to have been written by Saddam's son-in-law Hussein Kamel, confirming a nuclear test using 93% highly enriched uranium and yielding a 10 kiloton blast.

The story goes on to say that Iraq now has up to nine nuclear devices stored in bunkers in the Hamrin Mountains north of Baghdad. These are said to include three gun-type weapons, three implosion weapons, and three thermonuclear weapons.

The Arguments Against
The degree of detail provided in the story, and at least a reasonable familiarity with basic nuclear weapons terminology, seem to be the strongest elements arguing in its favor. Nor would any UN inspector be totally confident that all of Iraq's nuclear programs were uncovered. But there are some cogent arguments against accepting the story at face value. Among them:

In his story, Roberts claimed to have been shown a letter by Saddam Hussein's late son-in-law, Hussein Kamel, confirming the test. But Hussein Kamel defected to Jordan in 1995 and was certainly debriefed thoroughly by Western intelligence. He later returned to Iraq and was killed by his family. If Kamel knew about a successful nuclear test, would he not have told Western intelligence? And would Western intelligence, even if it failed to confirm the story elsewhere, have remained quiet about it, given the effort to discredit Saddam? The argument that Western intelligence might have remained silent to protect sources and methods would have been rendered moot when Hussein Kamel was killed.
Given the intrusiveness of the inspections, could Western intelligence really have failed to learn of a successful test? Why would a defector with clear knowledge of such a test go to a journalist but not to Western powers? If he did go to Western powers, why would they remain silent at a time when they are under heavy criticism for sanctions against Iraq, and when they have regularly accused Iraq of pursuing nuclear weapons programs?
Even assuming that Iraq carried out the test, could it really have produced three gun-style weapons, three implosion weapons, and three thermonuclear weapons by this time? The UN inspectors confirmed that Iraq had a workable design for an implosion bomb, but not enough fissile material. The technology has never been in doubt: it's the fuel that hasn't been there.
In the wake of the change of government in South Africa, would the sale of highly enriched uranium have remained a secret? Would France, as alleged, have actually transferred a potential weapons fuel to Iraq? Would the Soviet Union really have provided the gun-type weapons design or, as claimed, actual mechanism? So what is one to make of the story? It could, of course, be true. But a more likely scenario seems to be one of the following two possible explanations:
"Leone" was himself misled. "Leone" — why an Italian pseudonym? It is hardly an Iraqi name — could have been, along with other Iraqi nuclear engineers, led to believe a test had been conducted for any of numerous possible reasons: to raise morale, to persuade them to pursue further research, etc. But perhaps more likely is:
Iraqi Disinformation. At the moment, with Saddam Hussein threatening to attack Israel, deliberate Iraqi disinformation might serve a policy purpose. Convincing the world that one has the bomb (or nine bombs) when one doesn't could provide Iraq with a "virtual" bomb, a nuclear threat it doesn't really have. Perhaps this is not the case, and Iraq does have those bombs. But if so, it had a useable weapon during and after the Gulf War, and if that was the case, and it didn't use it then, why would it use it now?

[zip]

Dang, you forgot reparations. How many times do I have to remind you?

[Donna Lee Nardo]

Perhaps they are waiting for our moles to be recalled first....

[Donna Lee Nardo]

I thought Italy was onboard as well?

[Mr. Mojo]

Butthead Colmes is like all of the Lunatic Libs, they would have their Uncle Soddomite destroy America to weaken President Bush!

Yep....Here's something I wrote last night in that vein. I know it sounds harsh, but I meant every word:

"If the Rats knew for sure that the only way they could regain the WH in '04 and '08 would be if we suffered millions dead in bio-terror attacks and endured a subsequent economic collapse that made the Great Depression look like minor economic downturn, they'd root for it like hell. ....And I'm dead serious. I know a couple of the vermin personally."

[Grampa Dave]

You and I are on the same wave length. Ann Coulter rips their covers off of them in her book, Slander.

We need to get more people to see the terrible reality of these enemies of America here in our country, the lunatic libs.

[Aquinasfan]

Let's denounce our imperialistic ways, beat our swords into ploughshares, and redistribute all our income; then we will all live in peace together, with free college and free healthcare and free housing. Free Mumia!"

We have a winner! ;-)

[Mr. Mojo]

I haven't read Ann's book, but now I'll make a point to do so.

[tracer]

neverforget bump

[Grampa Dave]

I had not planned to read it. My oldest son and his wife gave it to me this Friday.

It is a must read for conservatives. It will go right besides Dr John Lott's book, "More Guns, Less Crime!" as a handy reference.

[ravingnutter]

Have not been able to find any satellite pictures, but there is info on that palace and his other special weapons facilities here

[WashingtonCollegeofLaw]

I for one am not a big fan of abdication/exile. Didnt work with Napoleon, probably wouldnt work with saddam. look at how mafia dons can run their organizations from inside prisons. Realistically, what is to prevent saddam from maintaining at least some control in Iraq. Hes got to be put down.

[goodnesswins]

Maybe after Berlusconi visits....right now have them as requiring UN approval, like Turkey.

[talleyman]

NO SMOKING GUN (or even a flaming missile) will ever be enough to convince liberals that this war is inevitably necessary. Their supply of feeble excuses is endless. Unless, of course, one of their own, like Klintoon, is occupying the White House at the time -- then every position they currently hold will flip 180 degrees.
Nailed it bump!

[princess leah]

"This is a classic Jim Carville, scorched earth campaign" crows one staffer. "Take no prisoners. That's how you win elections." REALLY? As in last November's elections? This should read: Because of Jim Carville's scorched earth campaign and "take no prisoners" attitude, staffers were forced to EAT CROW!

[dixiechick2000]

After reading your thread, I wanted to catch the repeat of H&C at 11 pst. For some reason, they pulled it and replaced it with Fox Report. I don't remember that ever happening before.

Could this "bomb" be the reason for that?

[Darksheare]

Hmm.. Tierney says Iraq has nukes.
I say that here on FR, and every psuedo-intellectual and wannabe physicist here flames me for it.

[mewzilla]

I don't know if anyone else noticed, and maybe it was nothing, but AlBaradei said they had found no evidence of nukes at any of the new facilities, those built in the last four years or so and that were ID'd by satellite photog. I( thought that disclaimer was a little odd. I mean why not just say that they haven't found any evidence of nuke activity? Anyway, I'd like to have some ask AlBaradei about it.