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McNeely Predicts Troubles for Repuublican Majority in Texas State Government
Austin American-Statesman (Cox Newspaper) | 11-09-02 | McNeely, Dave

Posted on 11/09/2002 7:10:33 AM PST by Theodore R.

After he lost the lieutenant governor's race four years ago to Republican Rick Perry, Democrat John Sharp said Texas wasn't a Republican state, just a Bush state. Even with George W. Bush coasting to re-election, Sharp came within 2 percentage points of winning.

This year, Bush closed a 15-day national campaign tour in Texas, and Republicans urged a straight-ticket vote to help the president. Bush might as well have been on the ballot, judging from Tuesday's results.

After the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Bush's popularity skyrocketed. It remained high even as Democrats pointed out that the economy was sputtering.

Meanwhile, Perry fended off Democratic challenger Tony Sanchez's self-funded ads, relentlessly hammering Sanchez because drug money had been laundered through his savings and loan. In the final days before the election, Perry tried to link Sanchez to the death of a federal drug agent.

Many people thought the ad was racist. But Perry's and Bush's efforts, plus a strong Republican get-out-the-vote program, worked.

The entire statewide GOP ticket won, including Supreme Court justice candidate Steven Wayne Smith — despite the fact that even conservative business groups backed his Democratic opponent.

Now, some Democrats are saying, "Dog catches car."

Bush and Perry will have Republican majorities in Congress and the Legislature. But the economy is sagging. The federal government is running at a deficit.

In Austin, a budget shortfall of at least $5 billion is expected. The public school finance system needs to be revised, the tax burden needs to be shifted off homeowners and home insurance regulation needs to be overhauled.

But many Republican legislators have made a career of voting "no" on spending and letting the Democrats carry the load to finance schools, roads, health care and prisons. Perry should remember that Bush's most courageous effort as governor — to restructure the tax system in 1997 — was killed by Republicans.

With the Republicans in such firm control, if the economy is still sputtering when Bush and Perry run for re-election, it'll be tough to blame the Democrats and keep a straight face.

Sharp thought he could have withstood even Bush's coattails in 1998, had Democratic Attorney General Dan Morales run for re-election.

He thought the boost in Hispanic turnout would bring him victory, so this time around he recruited Sanchez to run for governor.

But that fizzled, too. Had Sanchez had former San Antonio Mayor Henry Cisneros' charisma, and no blemishes — in addition to his deep pockets — it might have worked. Sharp got more votes this year than in 1998. But David Dewhurst got even more than Perry had.

To add to the pain, Dan Morales, after losing to Sanchez in a bitter Democratic primary, endorsed not only Perry but Dewhurst. His phone messages to Hispanic surname voters closed like this:

"Please join me and other Texas Democrats, Independents and Republicans in voting for David Dewhurst for lieutenant governor on Tuesday. Gracias."

dmcneely@statesman.com; 445-3644


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: dewhurst; mcneely; morales; perry; republicans; sharp; tx
Dave McNeely, the Austin-based columnist for the Cox newspapers, is considered a specialist on Texas politics and government. His wife died recently of breast cancer. He wrote a moving tribute to her that can be found in his column archives. McNeely is considered to have Democrat leanings.
1 posted on 11/09/2002 7:10:34 AM PST by Theodore R.
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To: Theodore R.
McNeely is considered to have Democrat leanings.

That's rather apparent.

2 posted on 11/09/2002 7:14:12 AM PST by Dog Gone
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To: Theodore R.
But the economy is sagging. The federal government is running at a deficit.

...And the threat of terror is ever-present in the minds of the voters.

Face it, Dems. You've been overtaken by events. When the threat of death and destruction looms, the people know they need adults in charge.

That's why you're out, and the Republicans are in.

Tough s***.

3 posted on 11/09/2002 7:17:51 AM PST by Illbay
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To: Dog Gone
I heard a rumor that James Carville has Democrat leanings.
4 posted on 11/09/2002 7:18:47 AM PST by Illbay
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To: Theodore R.
Perry's and Bush's efforts, plus a strong Republican get-out-the-vote program, worked.

The entire statewide GOP ticket won

Bush and Perry will have Republican majorities in Congress and the Legislature

Hmmmm, sounds mighty fine to me.

Reading his article sorta reminded me of how you had to read Pravda, betweeen the lines, during the Soviet years.

5 posted on 11/09/2002 7:29:28 AM PST by Slyfox
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To: Theodore R.
"McNeely Predicts Troubles for Repuublican Majority in Texas State Government".....They just might....if the R's fold up and run when the D's do what they always do...accuse Republicans of starving old folks, killing children, polluting the planet and being homophobic and mean. If the R's defer to the politically correct communists, then they will most certainly have trouble.

If they act like they are in charge (like they are), people will respond and put them further in charge in 2004.

6 posted on 11/09/2002 7:34:13 AM PST by B.O. Plenty
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To: Theodore R.
File this under "We got our asses kicked, good, now we have them were we want them!"
7 posted on 11/09/2002 8:10:04 AM PST by Semper Paratus
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To: B.O. Plenty
starving old folks, killing children, polluting the planet, and being homophobic and mean

These words are the Achilles heel of the Republican Party. Until the GOP learns to take the heat, it will fail. There is something about some Republicans that causes them to be pertually on the defensive in the wake of false Democrat rhetoric. James Carville knows that so well. So James will lie down and moan for a week, then he will be back, first making sure Mary Landrieu is returned to the Senate, then finding Democrats to take governorships next year in LA, MS, and KY. Finally, James will be working to find "someone decent" to run for President "against Bush" in 2004. Let's hope that James will look but not find. But when James is mad, you'd better watch out. After the take off the trash can, he will come out swinging again.
8 posted on 11/09/2002 9:01:03 AM PST by Theodore R.
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To: Theodore R.
"killing children"

Of course, it's also true that most of the Democrat politicaisn have made "killing children" a secular sacrament. They call it "a woman's right to choose." And millions buy this Democrat line. Jeanne Shaheen thought that this line would win her a ticket to the Senate. She BROUGHT UP the issue in her debates with Senator-elect Sununu.

9 posted on 11/09/2002 9:03:03 AM PST by Theodore R.
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To: Theodore R.
So James will lie down and moan for a week, then he will be back, first making sure Mary Landrieu is returned to the Senate, then finding Democrats to take governorships next year in LA, MS, and KY.

Teddy, you blew your predictions in the last two weeks, with all the "Sanchez voters are motivated" bullshit. Hell, he couldn't even get all the Hispanics in his home town of Laredo to turn out and vote for him!

First, Mary Landrieu is going to get massacred next month. Why would Democrats turn out to vote for somebody who's only going to be in the minority? Suzanne Terrell would be in the majority and be of much more help to Louisiana. Plus, Louisiana likes Bush, voted for him in 2000 and will vote for him again in 2004. And, why would a black man turn out to vote for Mary Landrieu? She's toast.

As for those governors, look for another Republican to win in LA. The idiot Patton in KY embarrassed himself and the Democrats and the GOP stands a very good chance there.

Until the GOP learns to take the heat, it will fail.

What an absurd statement, after one of the biggest GOP victories in the history of the world.

It's the DEMOCRATS who are feeling the heat now, Teddy, and they are committing suicide by electing Nancy Pelosi and her "San Francisco Democrat" crowd to be the face of the party.

No, I feel pretty damn good about the GOP's chances for the next decade.

10 posted on 11/09/2002 9:18:03 AM PST by sinkspur
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To: sinkspur
Well, let's hope columnist McNeely is wrong, and the Republicans will face all the challenges ahead. But many Republicans do "cave" before that is a necessary option. McNeely is skeptical, for he prefers Democrats in charge.

Tony Sanchez motivated his inner base, but the outer base was not reached. The Democrat strategy of running a minority person in order to bring out the dispossessed was an utter failure and will not be tried elsewhere. Sancez spent over $30 for each vote received. He was humiliated. Even in his home county, 53,000 registered voters did not vote. But Sanchez got 85 percent in his home county, just 6 points less than JFK got in 1960.

The Republican strategy of running three candidates to hold Mary Landrieu below 50 percent seems brilliant in retrospect. But that strategy was not devised, it just happened by circumstance and was aided by the pro-Republican tide Tuesday. Landrieu was weaker than presumed. Maybe Landrieu can be defeated, and Terrell can become the first Republican senator from LA since Reconstruction. We shall see. I was just saying, sinkspur, that James Carville will do everything in his power to make sure that his "other" Mary, Mary Landrieu, returns to the Senate. John Breaux is already out campaigning for her. He does not want Terrell cancelling some of his votes. Turnout will be a major factor on Dec. 7. Let's hope the Republicans are motivated to vote.

11 posted on 11/09/2002 9:45:32 AM PST by Theodore R.
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