EXCLUSIVE: MONDALE DROPS 7 POINTS AS POST-WELLSTONE MEMORIAL BACKLASH DEVELOPS

World Magazine ^ | 11/01/81 | By Joel C. Rosenberg, WORLD magazine contributor

[sonrise57]

* * * * WASHINGTON UPDATE * * * *

EXCLUSIVE: MONDALE DROPS 7 POINTS AS POST-WELLSTONE MEMORIAL BACKLASH DEVELOPS

Plus: Exclusive internal GOP tracking poll numbers from key Senate and House races

By Joel C. Rosenberg, WORLD magazine contributor (www.worldmag.com) (WASHINGTON, 10/31/02) -- Just got off the phones with several top GOP Senate and House strategists. Fascinating developments.

Exclusive new poll numbers will soon be posted at www.worldmag.com and www.JewishWorldReview.com.

SENATE SNAPSHOT: MINNESOTA -- COLEMAN SURGES 7 POINTS AS MONDALE FACES INDEPENDENT BACKLASH

A political backlash against Walter Mondale is developing after Democrats turned the memorial service for Sen. Paul Wellstone into a campaign rally, WORLD magazine has learned.

Internal GOP tracking polls over the past week show Republican Norm Coleman gaining 7 points since Tuesday night and now in a statistical dead heat with Mondale, 43% to 42%

The first GOP poll taken last weekend when Mondale's name was first floated to replace Wellstone put the 74-year old Democrat ahead of Coleman by 3 points, highly-placed GOP sources say.

By the Tuesday before the memorial service, internal GOP polls show Mondale had climbed to a 7 point lead, and Republicans were deeply concerned they couldn't overcome the "Mondale Mystique." An independent, public poll showed Mondale up 8.

"Everything changed Tuesday night," said a top Republican operative. "The Democrats' political rally really turned off independent voters. It alientated [Minnesota Governor Jesse] Ventura. And we saw Coleman's numbers rise almost immediately, and intensity for Coleman has significantly increased."

What happened?

"Basically, we're back where we were when Wellstone was alive," the GOP source said. "Independent, undecided voters really didn't like Wellstone. Now they're looking cautiously at the guy who's filling in for the guy they didn't like."

President Bush will now campaign in Minnesota with Coleman on Sunday.

**************

SENATE SNAPSHOT: ARKANSAS

New internal GOP tracking polls:
* Republican Sen. Tim Hutchinson -- 44%
* Democrat Mark Pryor -- 44%
* Republicans operative most worried about this race

**************

SENATE SNAPSHOT: GEORGIA

New internal GOP tracking polls:
* Democrat Sen. Max Cleland -- 44%
* GOP challenger Saxby Chambliss -- 41%
* Perhaps best shot at a GOP pickup
* President Bush campaigns for Chambliss on Saturday

**************

SENATE SNAPSHOT: NEW HAMPSHIRE

New internal GOP tracking polls:

* Rep. John Sununu -- 44%
* Gov. Jeanne Shaheen -- 42%
* But three independent polls show Shaheen ahead by 3 to 4 points.
* Sources say AFL-CIO sending in 500 employees to help Democrats get out the vote

**************

SENATE SNAPSHOT: COLORADO

* GOP Sen. Wayne Allard -- 45%
* Democrat Tom Strickland -- 41%
* GOP operatives say strong top of ticket -- Republican Gov. Bill Owens -- helping boost Republican turnout, helping Allard over the top

**************

SENATE SNAPSHOT: LOUISINA

New internal GOP tracking polls:
* Democrat Sen. Mary Landrieu -- 44%
* If she doesn't get more than 50%, she'll face a run-off.

**************

HOUSE SNAPSHOT: IOWA

* Desperate Iowa GOP House incumbents -- and Senate candidate Greg Ganske -- need the "Bush Bounce," so the White House political operation sending the President to Cedar Rapids on Monday.

* The redistricted and thus newly embattled GOP Rep. Jim Leach is now in the 1st Congressional District. He appears to be scratching and clawing his way to a lead, but House operatives remain worried. New internal GOP polling shows Leach ahead of Democrat challenger John Norris 52% to 40%.

* GOP Rep. Jim Nussle in the 2nd Congressional district is also in a brutal battle against TK. But Nussle now seem to be closing the sale with voters. He's up 54% to 46%.

* GOP Rep. Tom Latham is now up 8 points, but still below 50%. New polling shows the race at 48% to 40%. Speaker Dennis Hastert is going in to stump for Latham on Sunday.

* Christian conservative GOP state representative Steve King is strong to pick up a newly created Congressional seat in southeastern Iowa.

* Democrat incumbent Rep. Boswell is suddenly facing an incredibly strong GOP challenge from Stan Thompson. Boswell had been fine for months, but is dropping steady and is now under 50% -- 48% to 42%.

* Voter fraud in Iowa becoming major issue. Some districts have seen requests for 20,000 to 40,000 absentee ballots, almost none of which are coming from registered Republicans. "Abnormally high," says one GOP operative. "We're watching it real closely. These could be serious fraud cases developing."

**************

HOUSE SNAPSHOT: GEORGIA

* Republican strategists fear a net loss of House seats in Georgia of one to four seats due to aggressive redistricting by Democrat governor and legislature.

* But...the newly created 12th Congressional district could be a pickup for the GOP. Republican Max Burns has pulled slightly ahead of Democrat Champ Walker, 52% to 48%.

* Also...in the redrawn 11th Congressional district, Republican state senator Phil Gingry is finally gaining steam. Latest poll puts him down 3 points -- 43% to 46%. Speaker Hastert heads there to campaign with Gingry today.

HOUSE SNAPSHOT: KANSAS

* GOP operatives believe they now have a shot at defeating incumbent Democrat Rep. Dennis Moore Kansas's 3rd Congressional District. Republican Adam Taff, a former Naval aviator -- now a pilot for United Airlines -- is surging in the past two weeks and Washington is sending extra resources.

Moore -- 47%
Taff -- 44%

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[sonrise57]

Some good news here, but its going to be a squeaker----
VOTE!VOTE!VOTE!VOTE!VOTE!VOTE!VOTE!VOTE!VOTE!

[Warren]

As the dems would say:
"Paul would have wanted it that way"

[LibWhacker]

Whoa . . . RATS still have four days to replace Mondale.

[eureka!]

Interesting internal tracking poll ping...

[finnman69]

bump

[Paul Atreides]

Regarding that photo: it's a botox tech's dream.

[JRandomFreeper]

Whoa . . . RATS still have four days to replace Mondale.

Yep, he needs to stay out of small aircraft.

/john

[Alas Babylon!]

Nah, maybe the Devil, though. I see at least three of his favorite fans.

[ChadGore]

Vote !

[ambrose]

I am confused... the GOP internal tracking poll the night before the "memorial" showed Mondale up by 2... so now Mondale is up by 1 in this same tracking poll... and this is supposed to prove a massive backlash?

[Dales]

I am actually not really that enthralled with the Minnesota race. One of two things will happen- Mondale will win if and only if the Minnesota voters were going to elect a D no matter who it was. If there is any chance at all that Minnesota would elect a R, Coleman will win.

The Memorial Service did its part.

Mondale isn't showing up to the debate tonight, and the TV stations are going to air it with literally an empty seat there.

Mondale is showing an amazing lack of vigor and excitement on the stump; voters can generally tell when someone doesn't really want it and they vote accordingly. Mondale may actually want it but be incapable of being energetic for a four day sprint.

Basically, I think Coleman has this race won. Unless it was absolutely impossible to win.

[Dales]

I disagree. Had Tom Harkin died instead, Wellstone would have been doing what Harkin did.

The memorial service captured his heart and soul perfectly.

And for that, we as conservatives should feel blessed. The myth making and the romanticizing of Wellstone was shattered by the shrill shrieking of his strangly unmournful son's populist rallying cry.

This is who they are, this is who Wellstone was, and Minnesota is realizing that there is something wrong there.

[eureka!]

ambrose-read again. 7 point Mondale lead gone after the rally, er, memorial.

Dales- you're probably right about MN. The absentee fiasco may do the job. Here's hoping...

[lodwick]

Great post - thank you and bttt

[tiki]

If only I could be like some Dims and vote more than once.

[Ken H]

Does X-42 have a shiner? Must've forgot to duck another ashtray.

[skeeter]

Its the Clinton's midas' touch. Everything turns to sh*t.

The fun part is the democrats LOVE the guy!

[GOPJ]

The party faithful love Clinton, but most democrats are embarrassed by him. Watching him cheer and yuck it up at a memorial service was distasteful to many. To say the least.

[MadIvan]

"It's been a disquieting week in Lake Woebegon..."

Regards, Ivan