Posted on 10/17/2002 2:36:35 PM PDT by BlackRazor
October 17, 2002
Republicans Continue to Hold Leads in New Hampshire as US Senate Race Tightens
Republicans John Sununu, Craig Benson, Jeb Bradley, and Charles Bass continue to hold their respective leads over Democrats Jeanne Shaheen, Mark Fernald, Martha Fuller Clark, and Katrina Swett with only the race for US Senate tightening according to the latest New Hampshire Poll.
The results presented here are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in New Hampshire (300 interviews were completed in each Congressional District). The interviews were conducted from October 14 through October 16, 2002. Of the 600 likely voters, 225 are registered as Republicans, 156 as Democrats, and 219 are undeclared voters. The theoretical margin of error for the statewide sample of 600 likely voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split. The theoretical margin of error for the sample of 300 likely voters in each Congressional District is plus or minus 6 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
In the race for US Senate, Sununu leads Shaheen 51% to 43%, with 7% of voters undecided (Libertarian Ken Blevens has less than one-half of one percent). Sununu has dropped 4 percentage points since the last survey and Shaheen has gained 9 percentage points. Shaheen has solidified her support among Democrats and has increased support among undeclared voters in the Second Congressional District.
In the race for governor, Benson leads Fernald 57% to 28% (Libertarian John Babiarz has less than one-half of one percent). This race has changed little since early October, with Republicans and undeclared voters still supporting Benson by wide margins.
In the race for US Congress in the First District, Jeb Bradley leads Martha Fuller Clark 54% to 35% (Libertarian Dan Belforti has less than one-half of one percent). Bradley has increased his lead over Clark since September by gaining support from undeclared voters.
In the race for US Congress in the Second District, Charles Bass leads Katrina Swett 54% to 33% (Libertarian Rosalie Babiarz has less than one-half of one percent). This race is virtually unchanged since September, with Bass continuing to receive strong support from Republicans and from half of undeclared voters in the district.
About this survey:
Survey Sponsor: The American Research Group, Inc.
The New Hampshire Poll is an independent poll that has surveyed New Hampshire residents on social, economic, and political issues on a regular basis since December 1976.
Sample Size: 600 likely voters in New Hampshire, 300 in each Congressional District
Sample Dates: October 14-16, 2002
Margin of Error: ±4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split for the statewide sample and ±6 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split for the samples in each Congressional District
Question Wording:
In the race for US Senate between Ken Blevens, the Libertarian, Jeanne Shaheen, the Democrat, and John Sununu, the Republican, for whom would you vote - Blevens, Shaheen, or Sununu? (names rotated)
In the race for Governor between John Babiarz, the Libertarian, Craig Benson, the Republican, and Mark Fernald, the Democrat, for whom would you vote - Babiarz, Benson or Fernald? (names rotated)
In the race for US Congress between Dan Belforti, the Libertarian, Jeb Bradley, the Republican, and Martha Fuller Clark, the Democrat, for whom would you vote - Belforti, Bradley or Clark? (names rotated)
In the race for US Congress between Rosalie Babiarz, the Libertarian, Charles Bass, the Republican, and Katrina Swett, the Democrat, for whom would you vote - Babiarz, Bass, or Swett? (names rotated)
I'm not sure what to make of this organization after they gave Sununu a 21-point lead in their previous poll.
I have excised all the tables from this article (I don't know how to post those), so you might want to check out the link for the additional info.
If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!
In the race for US Senate, Sununu leads Shaheen 51% to 43%, with 7% of voters undecided (Libertarian Ken Blevens has less than one-half of one percent). Sununu has dropped 4 percentage points since the last survey and Shaheen has gained 9 percentage points. Shaheen has solidified her support among Democrats and has increased support among undeclared voters in the Second Congressional District.
| NH US Senate Match-up | Shaheen | Sununu | Undecided |
| October 16, 2002 | 43% | 51% | 7% |
| By party: | |||
| Republicans | 10% | 85% | 5% |
| Democrats | 86% | 8% | 6% |
| Undeclared | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Past surveys: | |||
| October 2, 2002 | 34% | 55% | 11% |
| September 2002 | 38% | 47% | 15% |
| June 2002 | 33% | 37% | 30% |
| March 2002 | 36% | 40% | 24% |
| December 2001 | 29% | 39% | 32% |
| September 2001 | 39% | 47% | 14% |
| July 2001 | 35% | 49% | 16% |
| June 2001 | 35% | 50% | 15% |
In the race for governor, Benson leads Fernald 57% to 28% (Libertarian John Babiarz has less than one-half of one percent). This race has changed little since early October, with Republicans and undeclared voters still supporting Benson by wide margins.
| NH Governor Match-up | Benson | Fernald | Undecided |
| October 16, 2002 | 57% | 28% | 15% |
| By party: | |||
| Republicans | 87% | 2% | 11% |
| Democrats | 9% | 78% | 13% |
| Undeclared | 61% | 18% | 21% |
| Past surveys: | |||
| October 2, 2002 | 59% | 30% | 11% |
| September 2002 | 55% | 30% | 15% |
In the race for US Congress in the First District, Jeb Bradley leads Martha Fuller Clark 54% to 35% (Libertarian Dan Belforti has less than one-half of one percent). Bradley has increased his lead over Clark since September by gaining support from undeclared voters.
| NH First CD Match-up | Bradley | Clark | Undecided |
| October 16, 2002 | 54% | 35% | 11% |
| By party: | |||
| Republicans | 91% | 1% | 8% |
| Democrats | 2% | 87% | 11% |
| Undeclared | 53% | 33% | 14% |
| Past surveys: | |||
| September 2002 | 40% | 33% | 27% |
In the race for US Congress in the Second District, Charles Bass leads Katrina Swett 54% to 33% (Libertarian Rosalie Babiarz has less than one-half of one percent). This race is virtually unchanged since September, with Bass continuing to receive strong support from Republicans and from half of undeclared voters in the district.
| NH Second CD Match-up | Bass | Swett | Undecided |
| October 16, 2002 | 54% | 33% | 13% |
| By party: | |||
| Republicans | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| Democrats | 18% | 72% | 10% |
| Undeclared | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Past surveys: | |||
| September 2002 | 51% | 33% | 16% |
| April 2002 | 53% | 26% | 21% |
"225 are registered as Republicans, 156 as Democrats, and 219 are undeclared voters."Is this an accurate reflection of the NH electorate? If it's closer to 33-33-33, than Shaheen is probably ahead.
Not necessarily. Just because they interviewed people in that proportion doesn't mean they weighted the responses that way when applying their turnout model. I'm sure they adjusted the proportions to what they thought was representive of the electorate.
I'm not sure that I've seen too many polls that release the R/D/I numbers if they've "scrubbed" them. I seem to remember spending a lot of time in 2000 trying to figure the R/D proportion in a couple traking polls and having a bear of a time working the math backwards.
Republican...35.98%
Democrat .. 26.79%
Undeclared .. 37.23%
Here the problem: NH US Senate Match-up Shaheen Sununu Undecided October 16, 2002 43% 51% 7% By party: Republicans 10% 85% 5%
I like it because it's easier than doing a complete "view Source' on an article and then picking the source code HTML you want to use. You dont' have to hunt for it with view patial source.
I don't have a link to the software but I'm sure someone will have. I got if on the formum sometime back from someone who posted it.
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