The war did not "wind down." Instead, its halt and ceace-fire were ordered by President Bush, stopping the allies from seizing much, much more of the Iraq military forces.
We had anticipated an Easter No-Fly Zone, a Western No-Fly Zone, and containment of Saddam Hussein into a Baghdad canton.
Bush stopped all this.
The Time story leaves much unstated about Bush's fear of losing political capital by being portrayed as a "war monger" at home; thus leaving Saddam a sanctuary.
Is why some people Didn't Vote for George Bush; not merely because of "the economy" or "no new taxes."
I agree with the other things you said, but I don't think the war 'mistake' is what cost him the election. However, I do believe he could of come out more popular had he ended things differently.
I think "read my lips", coupled by the liberal media at their orgasmic zenith of influence in bed with Clinton had more to play on this. Of course, the idiots that voted for Clinton deserve some of the credit as well, sighting that character doesn't matter, but, as they say, they had good intentions. ;>