I think you're right. I've fought the battle all my life and I've done just about all the diets, including Atkins. My most recent (and I believe what will be long term) success has been to drink plenty of water (The Water2cure diet says drinking half your body weight (lbs) in ounces daily. - So if you weigh 200 lbs. drink 100 oz of water), reduce or eliminate process sugars and flours. I don't limit natural sugar, but when I avoid white sugar I lose weight and feel better (and my arthritis is much better).
So far, I'm down about 15 lbs. since the end of June. I haven't followed it religiously or I'd be down more.