Why, the SurveyUSA poll just released wasn't even close in any of the big races. They've got a better track record than these college polls or Mourning News polls(one of them had Kirk leading among
self-identified conservatives 39% to 30%. Yeah right, and I'm the King of Spain.
The race doesn't start until Labor Day, and Cornyn is holding his fire. Perry is already running ads. If I were doing his ads, I'd add one with a list of all the high-profile endorsements he's received, and then for a punchline note that Sanchez is endorsed by the car dealers(with a shot of some slick greaseball in front of a lot of $500 rent-a-wrecks).
Unfortunately Kirk has portrayed himself as a conservative and the media has managed to hold up that image. I wouldn't discount the dead vote and the multiple voters and the 110% turnout in minority districts, either.
I hope you're right, believe me.