I will move the seat to a 55% GOP chance of a gain for now. I don't see this one as in the bag at all. But at least the bag is within reach. And I still think Lazio is a brat.
now now .......lol......Lazio might icome over your place and hit you with his paper work....I say it's tossup leaning towrds LAZIO......
Israel only got 49% of the vote in 2000......against a weak field..
Well, two things: redistricting in NY isn't done yet, and Lazio's decision to run might affect redistricting (it might be too late to change the maps, but my guess is that the GOP-- which controls 2/3rds of the process-- decided to make the CD even more Democrat to help other GOPers in the state before this decision by Lazio); and Lazio has easily won re-election in the past (average of 61% in 94, 96, and 98 for example) while NY-2 voted for Clinton by 20 points-- Lazio is the only guy that can win here.
With Bush's resurgence in popularity in New York, Lazio's race will be even easier.