Posted on 03/17/2002 6:36:27 PM PST by Enemy Of The State
The president has recognized the need to tone down his sharp rhetoric, engage Chinese leaders directly and increase consultations with senior Chinese officials on a broad range of issues.
Yet at the same time, Bush remains firm in his commitment to promoting democracy, religious freedom and the rule of law in the world's most populous country. He is also unwavering in his support of the US pledge to provide aid for Taiwan's defense.
Bush has long since abandoned the tough rhetoric he relied on during his campaign and early months in office. Instead of portraying China as a "strategic competitor," the phrase favored by candidate Bush and his foreign policy advisers, the president has endorsed the pursuit of a "constructive, cooperative and candid" relationship with China. He has also realized the importance of treating the Chinese with respect and of acknowledging Beijing's progress in developing the Chinese economy and in improving its people's standard of living.
During his 30-hour stay last month in the Chinese capital, the president publicly expressed admiration for China's "amazing progress" and described Beijing's successful bid to play host to the 2008 Olympics as a wonderful opportunity for China to enhance its international image. After visiting a bus engine factory, he praised the city of Beijing for owning one of the largest natural-gas bus fleets in the world.
This positive portrayal of China's accomplishments is a departure from Bush's depiction of China during the campaign. In a Nov. 19, 1999, speech on foreign affairs, candidate Bush referred to China's conduct as "alarming abroad and appalling at home." He described China's government as "a sponsor of forced abortion and an enemy of religious freedom" and an "espionage threat to our country." These strident views were conspicuously absent from Bush's public statements in Beijing last month.
In his speech to Chinese students at Qinghua University, Bush remained true to his long-standing vow to advance freedom and democracy in China. He urged the nation's future leaders to tolerate dissent and build a society based on the rule of law. In private sessions with Chinese President Jiang Zemin (¦¿¿A¥Á), Bush reaffirmed Washington's one-China policy, but he also asserted his insistence that Beijing rely on peaceful means in its quest for reunification with Taiwan. He also reiterated his commitment to the Taiwan Relations Act, which obligates the US to sell sufficient arms to Taiwan to defend itself.
Although Bush has not embraced China as a "strategic partner" as did former president Bill Clinton, he has nevertheless come around to recognizing the value of engaging China, rather than confronting it. In doing so, he followed in the steps of former presidents Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George Bush and Clinton, who, regardless of their starting points, eventually adopted a policy of engagement aimed at integrating China into the world community and promoting adherence by China to international norms.
The shift in Bush's approach, however, is primarily one of tone and process; it does not signal a fundamental transformation of the president's view of China. He retains an abiding belief that only a free and democratic China will be a responsible international player and will not pose a threat to its neighbors. He also maintains a strong faith in free trade as an ally in what Reagan termed "a forward strategy for freedom."
"The case for trade is not just monetary, but moral," candidate Bush said in his November 1999 foreign policy speech. "Economic freedom creates habits of liberty, and habits of liberty create expectations of democracy."
Engaging China may prove to be one of the most important challenges facing the world in the 21st century. China's economy is projected to continue to grow at 6 percent to 7 percent during the next 20 years. Its per capita income will continue to lag behind many advanced industrialized economies, but in terms of GDP it is expected to surpass that of all individual European countries within two decades. According to some forecasts, by 2025 the size of China's economy may match that of the US.
The challenges facing the Chinese leadership in the coming decades are momentous, and success is by no means assured. The fourth-generation leadership, which will take power at the 16th Party Congress this fall, must:
-- Implement China's commitments to the WTO.
-- Develop the lagging western provinces.
-- Increase the living standards of its 900 million rural citizens.
-- Integrate rural migration into cities.
-- Address environmental problems such as air quality and water shortages.
-- Check the spread of corruption.
The US should do what it can to assist Beijing in addressing these problems. Economic failure in China would pose a far greater threat to global stability and US interests than economic success.
China's continued economic growth and integration into the world economy offer the best hope for the development of a more pluralistic social and political system in China. As was true in Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand and Chile, a rapidly modernizing economy is likely to generate effective pressure for political change toward democracy.
How Washington deals with China now will determine Beijing's posture toward the US in the future. Apart from economic development, achieving unification with Taiwan is China's No. 1 goal. It is imperative that the US not be seen as unalterably opposed to the integration of the two sides of the Strait. Instead, Washington should stand willing to support any arrangements that are freely agreed by the people on both sides of the Strait. Beijing must accept that Taiwan will join the mainland only when Taiwan judges that there are benefits to doing so. Greater democracy in China will certainly have to come first.
Bonnie S. Glaser is a Washington-based consultant on Asian affairs. She is also a Senior Associate of the Pacific Forum, Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"he followed in the steps of former presidents Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George Bush and Clinton, " --what do all these guys have in common once they became presidents? answer is--all "advised" by CFR guys. They dig on china's two class elites and serfs technological society, see it as the 'model' for the rest of the world. They want the CHINESE model to influence the rest of the world, to change to the CHINESE model, not vice versa. Proof? That's easy--there has been ZERO quid pro quo for ever improving trade with china, nothing, zilch, not the barest hint of reform beyond making more money off the west. nothing, nada, el-zero. Not one single thing has china given up in exchange for all this money and trade. It's just as repressive as it was at any time there.
again:
""The case for trade is not just monetary, but moral," candidate Bush said in his November 1999 foreign policy speech. "Economic freedom creates habits of liberty, and habits of liberty create expectations of democracy."
Nice theory, sounds good on the teevee, where are any examples of this where it has worked in the past or that what we are doing now is going to work in the future in china? Russia? by all accounts bribery and payoffs are still how business is done in russia, and it's the same old commies still in charge as have always been in charge. Past before that? Germany before world war 2? Certainly a lot of trade, didn't mean anything because they were heck bent on eventual world conquest, and when they judged themselves strong enough they went for it. Ditto japan.
Nope, my guess is it would take a mass revolution-armed, the whole ball game-to get china to being even remotely 'democratic' let alone a representative republic. "free trade" certainly isn't going to do it. What is much more likely is that they will continue 100% their political system with all it's abuses, and just get better at it as they use more and more high tech and ever increasing wealth to work their police state, and eventually they too will think the "time is right" to expand.
I think they are playing the west for suckers.
Introduction: The smart colonels
It is a long but good read. It is essentially the preface to the book (so many may have already read it). The second part should come out tommorrow. Sorry - I didn't have the time to post the above article.
What a BS statement. What the #$LL do they call what he has been doing?! This is more 'engagement' than we have ever had...EVER. What the heck is this about 'directly'...???? GW seems fairly direct to me.
This author is a whiner... full of trash.
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