Thanks for the post and graphic.
I think the poll numbers shown may be misleading, however. The Democrats have succeeded in meddling sufficiently with primary elections (along with Uniparty Republicans). What is NOT shown is what form of primary election is being used in the states. Many primaries are “Open” and some are RCV.
California, for instance, is Ranked Choice. This means that Trump’s lead over Haley is probably meaningless. I would expect Biden and Haley to emerge from California, as all the Democrats in that state will put Haley in as #2.
The California situation is very confusing.
The ranked choice does not apply to the Republican Presidential Primary.
This articles explains:
https://calmatters.org/newsletters/whatmatters/2023/07/2024-election-california-republicans/
“But for the March primary, if any candidate can secure more than 50% of the votes statewide, they will get all 169 delegates, reports the Los Angeles Times. If no one wins a majority, the delegates will be awarded proportionately based on each candidate’s share of the statewide vote.”
Ranked choice will remain popular with progressives until it turns on them and bites them in the butt someday, then it will be dropped as the stupid idea that it truly is.
Really want to see the internals of the post-Cali primary, especially if Garvey 'wins' or is within a point of Schift. To me, that would identify a pronounced weakness in Democrat enthusiasm in California of all places.
If Garvey wins by 2+, Schift will privately demand Schuck and the DSCC give him a blank check to try and put away Steve early; or risk the fact that Schift knows, not only will Biden lose, but Biden may indeed be such a stiff he could shred Democrat coattails down the ballot. Gotta see exit polling to make a better judgment.