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1 posted on 02/01/2024 9:21:40 AM PST by lightman
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To: lightman
Wikipedia

The earliest known reference to the term black swan occurs in the Roman poet Juvenal’s poem Satire VI, in which he describes potential qualities of a woman worthy of marriage.

His line “rara avis in terris, nigroque simillima cygno” translates to “a rare bird in the world, very similar to the black swan.”

…that a perfect wife is a "rare bird" (rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cycno 6.165); a rare bird in the earth, a modified form of which is the modern phrase "a black swan," since black swans are rarer than white.

The person who coined the modern term, Black Swan:

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (/ˈtɑːləb/; alternatively Nessim or Nissim; born 12 September 1960) is a Lebanese-American essayist, mathematical statistician, former option trader, risk analyst, and aphorist whose work concerns problems of randomness, probability, and uncertainty.

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is a former options trader. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.

The book has been described by The Sunday Times as one of the twelve most influential books since World War II.

41 posted on 02/01/2024 11:14:27 AM PST by yelostar (Spook codes 33 and 13. See them often in headlines and news stories. )
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To: lightman

Add CCP invades Taiwan.


43 posted on 02/01/2024 11:21:20 AM PST by JesusIsLord ( )
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To: lightman

Another possible Black Swan Event: the assassination of President Trump. With a suspected tie to the FBI/CIA/DOE.


51 posted on 02/01/2024 11:38:46 AM PST by gitmo
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To: lightman

Swift and boyfriend throw their support to Trump which triggers a civil war that is abandoned when an armada of AI controlled space androids attacks Earth and the political antagonists must join forces with synapsid dog men related to Permian period Gorgonopsians who emerge from caverns in Kentucky and New Mexico to save the planet.


52 posted on 02/01/2024 11:39:36 AM PST by MrBambaLaMamba (The only good commie is one that's dead - Country Joe McDonald)
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To: lightman

Trump winning the election was not a black swan event. Every aspect of the election was well known...only 2 possible outcomes


60 posted on 02/01/2024 12:09:18 PM PST by oil_dude
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To: lightman

Bolsheviks Vs America

No in-between in the coming election the last 3 years has prover that.


65 posted on 02/01/2024 1:02:30 PM PST by Vaduz
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To: lightman

Or ALL OF THE ABOVE!


66 posted on 02/01/2024 1:19:05 PM PST by Ann Archy (Abortion....... The HUMAN Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: lightman
... but Joe Biden is a stupid, malignant man, and his administration is full of stupid, malignant people.

Let me fix that, because this is the real danger: ... but Joe Biden is a stupid, malignant man, and his administration is full of very smart, malignant people.

67 posted on 02/01/2024 1:40:03 PM PST by SFConservative
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To: lightman

computer thing (but, emp, killer hack, whatever)?
asteroid?


69 posted on 02/01/2024 1:53:18 PM PST by xoxox
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To: lightman
It is not an impossibility that yet another leftist murderer could take aim at President Trump. If that happens, all bets are off. This country will convulse into chaos. So pray for his health, even if you are not supporting him in the election. Because something bad happening to Trump means something bad will happen to the United States.
73 posted on 02/01/2024 2:18:46 PM PST by Brown Deer
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To: lightman

Scorched earth seems to be their plan as we get closer


75 posted on 02/01/2024 2:39:01 PM PST by ronnie raygun
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To: lightman

One other thing: By the time of the DemocRat convention, it sis obvious that Biden is going to lose, so instead they perform the old switcheroo and nominate Michelle Obama to be the candidate for the DNC.


77 posted on 02/01/2024 3:29:59 PM PST by Blood of Tyrants ( "It is easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled."- Mark Twain)
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To: lightman

Bttt.

5.56mm


86 posted on 02/01/2024 3:46:19 PM PST by M Kehoe (Quid Pro Joe and the Ho have got to go. )
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To: lightman
My prediction:

President Trump is convicted and immediately taken into custody by liberal Democratic haters.

An over-zealous jailor takes Trump to an intake room where they buzz-cut his famous hair, take a picture of him with nothing but stubble, and then leak it to the press.

This will enrage Trump's base to the point where even liberals admit that they went too far with cutting off Trump's hair to humiliate him.

-PJ

89 posted on 02/01/2024 5:09:57 PM PST by Political Junkie Too ( * LAAP = Left-wing Activist Agitprop Press (formerly known as the MSM))
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To: lightman

bump


92 posted on 02/01/2024 8:02:32 PM PST by PLMerite ("They say that we were Cold Warriors. Yes, and a bloody good show, too." - Robert Conquest )
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