Posted on 10/17/2023 5:01:32 AM PDT by bert
Is Hezbollah waiting to strike until forces are in a Gaza quagmire?
It seemed crystal clear on Thursday: the IDF counter-invasion of Gaza would start either Friday or Saturday.
The IDF had given certain deadlines for Palestinians to evacuate northern Gaza, with the deadlines expiring by midday Friday.
The drum beat toward an invasion had started as early as Sunday-Monday and was only getting louder, with the air force having already paved the way with several days of withering bombing.
Yet, now we have arrived at late Monday, and if anything, the signs (which could also be psychological warfare) are that the invasion is further away, and not yet imminent.
What changed? A number of factors seem to have caused a delay, but sources have told The Jerusalem Post that one factor has been a growing concern that Hezbollah is waiting for the moment that most IDF ground forces are committed to Gaza to open a full front with the IDF in the north.
In this narrative, the fact that Hezbollah did not engage at the start of the war Saturday morning and has kept its attacks on Israel at a fairly low threshold does not prove that it is deterred but is part of an elaborate fake-out to lure the IDF into a false sense of security, similar to what Hamas pulled off in the south.
As fodder for such suspicions, sources would note that Israeli intelligence and the political echelon must have a new level of humility about their assessments of enemy intentions after missing the boat regarding Hamas in the south.
This will not stop the IDF from invading Gaza, but it may have caused a delay to better double-check signs regarding Hezbollah's intentions as well as to further reinforce the northern forces in case the worst comes to pass.
There is also a deepening recognition in the IDF and at the political level, that the IDF has not done anything like this in decades, and that rushing in unprepared, simply to more quickly satisfy the wider population's thirst for retribution, could be a large mistake.
In this perspective, the 2006 Second Lebanon War ground invasion was a complete mess, with the airpower being the successful part, with both the 2008-9 and 2014 invasions of Gaza being more symbolic.
In other words, with all of the many "rounds" of conflict, the IDF should not be overconfident about its talent at conducting large land invasion operations.
Strategy against Hamas While achieving strategic "surprise" would be impossible given that Hamas started this war, the IDF would also like to achieve at least a tactical surprise against Hamas, which requires planning.
A number of other delaying factors could be US pressure to avoid civilian casualties, domestic concerns about Israeli hostages in Gaza, and giving more time for Palestinians to evacuate.
Another factor is the US and world response to date.
Currently, Israel feels huge support and like it has more time to work with to deal with Hamas.
This Is The Highest Rated Hearing Aid In The US This Is The Highest Rated Hearing Aid In The US Sponsored by hear.com The Truth About Keeping Muscle Mass After 50 Sponsored by alphahealthfindings.com One question that arises at this point though is whether top IDF and civilian leaders are misjudging the clock.
According to Hamas' numbers, already a couple thousand Palestinians are dead and many more wounded. In 2014, when 2,000 Palestinians were killed, at least half were civilians despite the IDF's attempts to avoid civilian casualties.
Such is the fog of war.
The second that those numbers balloon, which will likely be when the invasion starts in a real way, there will be powerful US and world pressure to stop.
Also, the Post has confirmed from many sources that no one has yet decided what will happen to Gaza after the IDF will supposedly topple Hamas' rule.
This and all of the other above factors have left top Israeli officials huffing and puffing for new superlatives for what they will do to Hamas...while still basically having done very little new for about a week.
Only after the war will we know whether this extra time was spent wisely crafting a smarter and more effective invasion and post-invasion plan, or whether the delay will be looked back on as having wasted precious days to "change the reality in Gaza" and avoid future near term Hamas attacks.
We know what you do. Why aren't you doing it?
For the journalists.......... why endanger IDF soldiers when we can annihilate Hamas with bombs?
The article supposes several possible reasons. Others speculate a sand storm in Jordan is the reason
I will speculate that perhaps an invasion is not required. Rather than send troops on the ground to be killed or wounded while the world argues over negations for ceease fire, a better course is to seek out Hamas targets and just bomb the hell out of them. A better course is to accept US supplied communications intelligence and then send in drones to precisely locate the target. Then, kill everybody there with a precisely targeted bomb.
Why invade when we can accomplish objectives with precise killing and restricted mayhem?
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-768719
Biden is going there to throw a wrench in the works
80 yr old senile POS
I’m sure this is the biggest consideration for the IDF.
The Obama legacy is at risk if destruction
Think President Trump
Think Abrams Accords
Hell just make an ass of himself as usual. I’d trade him for the hostages but I doubt Hamas would take him or camel toe.
It is due to intelligence gathering and continued psy-ops. How long can Hamas stay in a heightened state of readiness? Israel has all the time in the world. Meanwhile globally, Hamas sympathizers are being called out for their support of the terrorists.
Yes, the most power POS on the planet. Like a toddler driving a bulldozer down your street.
Why are journalists so eager to blame Israel for war crimes that they can’t wait a few days for the shooting to start?
William the Conqueror was stuck on the beach with his invasion force for almost a month before he set across the Channel in 1066. Everybody has their reasons.
Would it have been a shorter wait if they had a 24 hour news cycle on the internet/cable and drones? Probably.
Drones would’ve made a compilation of the Domesday book much easier.
Yes they just can’t wait to start broadcasting photos of arab men in white trainers running around carrying bloody children
( hint: it’s always men, no mothers or women, no families in sight)
Terrorists attack Israel. Then when Israel responds, the terrorists cry for a cease fire
Terrorists don't care because they got their cheap shot in and can then work on world opinion to demand cease fire...AS IF Israel acted independently with an unprovoked attack!
Wash, rinse, repeat.
In the meantime Israel's sovereignty is compromised and Israelis are dying!!
It would seem that if Hamas is operating out of Gaza, Israel has them right where they want them. Pick them off with precise bombing, like shooting rats with a 22.
If some sympathetic ME country can be prevailed upon to take them, relocate all 1M of them to Egypt or Syria or Iran or wherever. Hamas didn't pull off their surprise massacre without an entire population looking the other way, and then ululating and passing out goodies in celebration.
This could be the first battle in history where the United States Space Force is called upon to provide reconnaissance mission data used to assist in ground force mission execution. The IDF should know what is likely to happen pre-invasion, halfway in, all the way in and on the way out of this mess. The USSF is still something of an enigma but their presence and participation could make a huge difference once they get the ball rolling.
Israel has all the time in the world.
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Exactly! It’s like any hostage situation, just wait it out. Delay works against the hostage takers. Wear them down, mentally, physically, and nutritionally. I wouldn’t have turned on the water either. It’s possible the residents would have turned on Hamas if they got thirsty and hungry enough.
Yep, excellent strategy.
Interesting article and FR post about space-based reconnaissance missions-
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4190207/posts
Clear that the US is trying to control the Israeli offensive. The travel of Biden to the region is a sign of desperation. The US would prefer a “proportionate” response of limited duration. Biden’s handlers fear a a widening of the war as Blinken’s shuttle diplomacy in the region elicited threats from the Arab nations that Israel should not cross their red line of Israel entering Gaza and destroying Hamas.
When faced with growing international condemnation of Israel for the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, Biden’s handlers will cave. They want a truce and refugee sanctuaries in Egypt. Bibi is also facing domestic opposition from his Unity government. Prediction: Israel will have a muted reaction with a limited operation in Gaza of short duration. They will declare victory and move on. Biden will be hailed as a peacemaker.
Abram Accords/Negev Summit
I know it would be satisfying to go in and level everything but perhaps the better response, if they can do it, is to identify everyone in Hamas and send in clandestine special forces and precision munitions to eliminate them, starting from the top and working downward, until Hamas no longer exists.
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