So RFK Jr. takes 6 points from Trump and 7 points from Biden...not much of a difference and we are 13 months away from the election. The Democrats may still find a way to replace Biden with someone with fewer negatives.
I could not find the partisan mix for this poll.
Note very carefully, people, that Independents are generally outnumbering the two parties. This is very Trump positive because the big popular vote margin is limited to Calif and NY. In 2020 Biden logged 7 million more votes and 5M of those were in Calif and heavily Dem.
The danger here is Kennedy would be, in fact, Independent. That will attract the attention of the largest voting segment, Independents.
Independents are erroneously evaluated as in someway profoundly moderate and middle of the road types. This is wrong. They feel strongly about issues the GOPe and DEMe do not want focused on — namely the Swamp. It was Independents who won Trump the presidency in 2016, because he was the only candidate focused on the Swamp.
The also rans talk about returning to traditional Conservative values — which in their minds excludes populism (the rejection of elitism). The last thing they want is excluding elitism, because they fancy themselves as elites.
Traditional Conservative values are pretty simple. Reduce government influence in every day life. The Swamp is that influence. That makes the also rans non Conservative. They stomp their feet about “getting things done.” That’s not conservatism. Conservatism is NOT getting things done.