Interesting take. But since the Afghanistan withdrawal was such a success, why would Biden need another military success to feather his cap? Not saying you are wrong. But if Ukraine turns into another Afghanistan like failure, this admin will just find a way to blame Trump.
It's been the game since Hillary Clinton ran her election scams.
The largest frame for this whole moment is that individual nations -- let's sidestep Ukraine and Russia for the moment -- are learning that Biden-Blinken leveraging via sanctions and such to do "our will" is a worldwide phenomenon. I suspect "we" are punching well above our true economic weight in the moment, and pissing off quite a large number of nations. Trump's "let's make deal" stance is a way forward quite different from "do as we say or else."
A couple of times in my dealing with contracts, the alternatives were "let's make a deal" or "blow it all up." The far more preferable option is to "deal." Even when not holding the best hand of cards.
This is why I expect the coming year's worth of political coverage throughout our US will be more of the earlier. Orange man bad. Trump. Orange man bad. Trump. Rinse and repeat. Great way to avoid real issues....