Posted on 09/13/2023 6:23:14 AM PDT by Twotone
Redistricting for congressional seats typically takes place prior to the first congressional elections held after a census is conducted, but the congressional maps in some states are still in limbo ahead of the second congressional elections based on the current census data.
Three states have had recent developments in legal battles over how congressional districts will look for the 2024 election, with one state having its map for the election solidified. Here is a look at the redistricting situations in Florida, Ohio, and Alabama.
Florida
The congressional map in the Sunshine State is currently in legal limbo after a circuit judge ruled last week that the current map, which was enacted in 2022, was unconstitutional.
Judge J. Lee Marsh ruled that the state had violated the Fair District Amendment in the Florida Constitution, which says congressional maps may not be drawn in a way that would "diminish" the ability for minority voters to elect a representative of their choice.
"By dismantling a congressional district that enabled Black voters to elect their candidates of choice under the previous plan, the Enacted Plan violates Article III, Section 20(a) of the Florida Constitution," Marsh wrote in the decision.
The state has said it plans to appeal the ruling, which calls for a new map to be created, to the Florida Supreme Court.
The current congressional delegation from the Sunshine State is made up of 20 Republicans and eight Democrats. If a map is created under the ruling by the circuit judge, it would likely result in Democrats picking up a seat from the GOP.
Ohio
The congressional map used in 2022 in Ohio will remain in place for the 2024 elections after a challenge to their legality was dismissed by the Ohio Supreme Court on Thursday.
The map had been in legal limbo since it was struck down by the Ohio Supreme Court under a previous chief justice last year. The ruling was subsequently remanded by the U.S. Supreme Court in June and sent back to the Ohio Supreme Court, which dismissed the case.
Petitioners had requested the case be dismissed under concerns the current map would be replaced by a map that was more favorable to Republicans. Because of the dismissal of the current legal challenges, the current map will remain in place for at least the next election.
The current congressional map in Ohio has 10 districts represented by Republicans and five represented by Democrats. Two of the Democrats in the Ohio congressional delegation represent districts with a Republican advantage, according to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index.
Alabama
In Alabama, a federal district court struck down a proposed congressional map for the state, arguing the new map "plainly fails" to adhere to the Supreme Court's ruling in June that a second majority-black district be made in the state.
"We do not take lightly federal intrusion into a process ordinarily reserved for the State Legislature. But we have now said twice that this Voting Rights Act case is not close. And we are deeply troubled that the State enacted a map that the State readily admits does not provide the remedy we said federal law requires," the decision reads.
The previous map in the state, used in the 2022 election, was ruled as violating the Voting Rights Act by the high court earlier this year, after only having one majority-black district.
Alabama Secretary of State Wes Allen filed an appeal to the federal district court's ruling to the Supreme Court and filed a motion to stay the ruling pending appeal.
The Yellowhammer State currently has a congressional delegation of six Republicans and one Democrat. The creation of a second majority-black congressional district in Alabama would likely flip one of the seats from GOP to Democratic, as black voters traditionally vote overwhelmingly for the party.
I don’t remember ever seeing it written in the Constitution that tyrannical, black-robed Feral Judges are responsible for manipulating and diddling with maps to make sure the former African slaves win all the elections. They are only 12% of the population for Pete’s sake.
The courts "know" that black voters always want to vote for a black candidate, who must be a Democrat (black Republicans don't count), and their rights are violated if they don't have that choice.
If 49% of the voters in a district are not black, their choice is not of concern to the courts.
SO MUCH THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The only reason any of this even matters is that the Republican Party effectively ceded control of the nation’s affluent suburbs to the Democrats with the 2017 tax reform bill.
Create districts by last name.
Imagine if a state had three seats in the House.
People with last names beginning with A-G might be in District 1.
People with last names beginning with H-N might be in District 2.
People with last names beginning with O-Z might be in District 3.
State legislatures are spending too much time creating maps that judges object to.
Google, Facebook and Yahoo all know my last name is Griffin and they sell far more advertising than newspapers.
“control of the nation’s affluent suburbs to the Democrats”
When my brother was putting up signs 20 years ago I was amazed how many Democratic signs there were in a very affluent part of his town.
When McCain ran for President, only in the Dallas suburbs did I see that the majority of the signs were for him instead of Obama. The Main Line area outside of Philly had a heavy majority of Obama signs.
The U.S. Constitution doesn’t even require states to have House districts. In the early years of the country’s existence many states just had at-large representation in the House. If your state has three House seats, then a bunch of candidates run on one ballot and the top three finishers go to Washington.
Hey Georgia! Do you want this clown over there?
That’s true but maybe we should keep quiet about it. California and New York may adopt such a system so that all of their Congressmen will be Democrats.
I don't see how that works. I ran the 2022 numbers in California just to see how it might play out. It's not a precise estimate because it is based only on total votes for each House candidate, so some numbers might be artificially suppressed if there are some races that weren't even really contested.
California has 52 House districts. I just took the vote totals for the candidates in each district and ranked them from top to bottom.
After the 2022 election, the Democrats controlled 40 of the districts and the Republicans held only 12.
If you rank the vote totals for all the House candidates from top to bottom, the Democrats have 37 of the top 52 and the Republicans have 15. The Democrats had the top eight vote totals, topped by #1 (241,000 for District 16). The top Republican was #9 overall with 181,400 (District 3).
In 11 of the 52 districts, BOTH the winning and losing candidates in the House race finished among the top 52 vote totals in the House races.
Many districts are so uncompetitive that there is little incentive to vote unless a voter is concerned about the Presidential or gubernatorial race. The Democrat pluralities in Presidential elections went from 3 million in 2008 and 2012 to 5 million in 2020. Of course who knows how many of those were fraudulent votes, but if the Congressional totals were similar that would mean all 52 seats going to the Democrats.
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