Apple is over valued by the market, with a p/e ratio over 30.
Much of that value is built on expectations more than on actual earnings or even earnings growth. Apple’s present net earnings are about where they were in 2017.
Microsoft is also selling at a high 30+ p/e, but its quarterly earnings are more than double what they were in 2017, making its p/e ratio somewhat more justified.
How can Apple get out of this?
In my view Apple has to introduce another, brand new, game changing product. Updates to the iPhone are not going to keep Apple’s performance up. The CCP is going to use their government to shrink Apple’s cell phone market in China, and even after Apple expands production and sales in places like India, markets like that do not have many consumers who can shell out the domestic currency equivalent of $1,500 for a new iPhone. And in China (where the CCP seeks to shrink Apple’s share of the market, the best iPhone model sells for the domestic currency equivalent of over $1,000, and the iPhone has about 60% of that market. Every 10% reduction in that market that the CCP can make happen, will eat into Apple net revenue and make its over valued p/e even more over valued, unless the market value of Apple shares move down.
Apple needs a Steve Jobs moment, with a whole new never before seen game changing product; not a reinvention or imrovement on a kind of product that already exists, but something brand new in it’s purpose.
Doesn’t Warren Buffett (and Berkshire Hathaway) own a whole bunch of Apple stock?
I am not of the mind that WB is the genius that his press releases claim. But just raising the question as something upon which to think.
Agreed. I expect a quick bump in the price, fueled by Apple minions, to coincide with the announcement. Then the reality that it’s basically a nothingburger will hit, and the stock will continue to founder.
All my very amateur opinion, which I suggest no one follow.