Wow, looks like a bomb to me. No missile trail, just a puff of smoke at one spot, and the place spiraling in. That’s no normal accident due to weather or pilot error.
Pattern would have been more spherical and too much of the plane was intact coming down for an onboard bomb. There would have also been more debris in the air from an onboard event.
Most SAM’s and AAM’s have infra-red (heat seeker) or radar guidance, but proximity fusing. The warheads of missiles targeting aircraft these days are essentially big shotgun shells.
The beginning of that video looks like a pilot trying to control what was left of his aircraft after the back end and engines got shredded.