Could be true. But this feels like Normalcy bias to me — the situation with the dollar just isn’t going to change, because that sort of situation doesn’t change. This sort of thinking is always true — until it isn’t. I think some pretty important countries are hoping that it isn’t true and that things do change.
Fed.gov just confiscated $300 billion of Russian reserves. Is that not a lesson to every country in the world that to maintain your political independence, one should NOT deal in US Dollars?
the BRICS and much of Africa want an alternative to the US Dollar, and they are planning it now. What will it be gold? Some basket of currencies? Oil? Chinese Yuan?
It doesn’t mean the US dollar collapses. It just means over time, there will be more competition
The future of the US dollar is really in OUR hands. What will the USA do to make its currency attractive to hold? IMHO - we will likely continue on the path of woke, neocon, debt-fueled neo-marxism.
Let’s check back in 10 years.
There is no alternative for global trade. The Yuan could have been it if China had continued to become more of a market economy but they decided to impose severe capital controls, harass western countries corporations and play around with the value themselves. Europe is a basket case. No other economy is even remotely close in size, not even counting stability. The dollar could drop a bit - it’s in the top 1/3 of its trading range here - but collapse - nope. There simply isn’t an alternative.