On that last, Russia’s problem is that countries like China and India essentially are going along with the transport sanctions and forcing Russia to continue to sell at large discounts. Obviously, this is a windfall for the buyers. Russia has no easy way out because now it’s customer list is sharply curtailed, and due to transport times, there are nowhere near enough ships, in or out of sanctions, to carry the volumes needed. (To maintain the same volume when transport time is something like 6x, you need 6x the ships. Ain’t happenin’ any time soon.)
Most analysts seem to forget that “The West” doesn’t actually want to completely cut off Russian energy exports from global markets, as that raises their own prices. The idea is to cut into Russian revenues, which Russia’s own latest economic report shows is clearly happening.
The West also does not want to harm it’s other trade partners such as Japan and S. Korea, etc.
(Said block, btw, is ~ 80% of global GDP. The US and Europe alone are ~ 73%.)
The single BEST measure of Russia’s economy is probably their VAT tax revenues. Keep an eye on those, allowing for any rate hikes by Russia.
Russia had a $120 Billion infusion into their economy in 2022 from their energy exports alone, and this was for less total volume. The Russians found ways around basically every sanction that imposed any meaningful pain to Russian consumers and businesses.
I appreciate that you have a desire to believe that the Biden administration had the aptitude and ability to sink the Russian economy, but it is not working. The points that you mention are not accomplishing what you believe that they are. If anything, the sanctions, war time production, and trade are rejuvenating the Russian economy.
VesselValue says that Russian companies bought up 10-12% of the world’s tanker fleet in 2022.
How can you guess how much oil and for what price are they shipping once all the trade is bypassing Lloyd’s and SWIFT?
Global oil trade is now a big black market, where the West is losing profit and influence.