I assume it’s the same as with lions. Horny boar bears won’t get laid as long as momma bears are lactating and caring for cubs.
The behavior makes sense from a genetic standpoint, but only up to a point. Given their large territories, 25% of cubs killed means these boars are probably often killing their own offspring?
From my reading, it is a mix of all of the above, with predation tops, then some benefit from females coming into estrus, and territorial mixed in.
Trying to get into a bears' minds to sort it all out is beyond human research.