Posted on 09/13/2022 12:05:41 PM PDT by AAABEST
Again, it’s difficult to say with a high degree of certainty, but stock investors will likely experience a bumpy ride over the next 6-12 months. The timing is possibly the most uncertain element here. Higher interest rates and a smaller money supply will reduce loan growth and economic activity. No question on that. However, will the Fed go too far and push the economy into recession?
Globally, most of the world’s central banks are on a similar path as the U.S. Federal Reserve. For example, Europe, the U.K., and India are all raising interest rates. China, however, is not. Europe is facing a potentially serious energy crisis when the weather turns cold. This is because Europe only produces about 42% of its energy needs (CY 2020) and imports 58%. A significant amount of Europe’s energy need was supplied by Russia. Since Russia has closed the Nord Stream 1 Pipeline, Europe is forced to replace this lost energy. All of this argues for a more severe recession in the EU region.
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
I was young then.. about 15... I remember hearing about traders that were jumping out of windows and such. Was nuts!
Recession (arguably) —> Stagflation —> Depression
Down 1312
The drop is just getting started to DOW 25K......
There is gloom out there, but no panic. Reason you know that is that 30 year bonds, while off from the first hour sell off, have come back a little. Long bond went from 133-8 to 131-7 and is back up a little.
This means people still view bonds as “safe” or at least safe relative to stocks. You won’t see panic till you see nothing but cash... AND people piling into precious metals because everything paper is on fire.
We have a ways to go yet.
Inflation and higher interest rates are bad for the markets.
However the word I keep hearing which is an even bigger concern is “valuations” .
Even after losing 10 to 20% over the last year, the markets are historically overvalued. The companies simply don’t earn enough money to justify the height of the market.
So I think that spells a significant further drop one way or the other.
20% to 40% lower.
They’re now calling it a climate bill in their inflation reduction act celebration. Its being rubbed in our faces.
The Dow is very close to what it was when FJB took office almost 21 months ago.
I think I’ll put what’s left of my 401-K in lottery tickets.
Yes, it’s actually considerably lower.
It was just below 32k when he got in.
I'm sending what's left of mine to the DNC and maybe they'll send be some food stamps.
With lottery tickets you have a 200 million to 1 chance. With Dem-RINOs, you have ZERO chance.
30,996.98 on 1/22/21.
Similar. I have a managed portfolio with 60/40 allocation. Down around 30% since the beginning of the year. Nowhere to hide.
Totally different country today. Diversity is not a strength.
Yeah that’s right.
I plugged in Jan 20, not 22.
“With lottery tickets you have a 200 million to 1 chance. With Dem-RINOs, you have ZERO chance.”
Post of the day!
FJB
I would like to know if there’s a connection between the price of gold dropping and stocks dropping at the same time.
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