If MN had lost a seat it would have been a GOP seat.
Well, it wouldn’t have been as simple as that. Sure, the court likely would have “combined” MN-07 with MN-08 and given the southern portion of MN-07 to MN-01, with all three of those CDs being held by the GOP after 2020 (although as recently as 2018 all three were held by Democrats). But the reduction of the state’s delegation to seven members would have increased each CDs required 2020 population by 12.5%, forcing the urban MN-04 and MN-05 further into Democrat-voting inner suburbs and making the suburban districts that moved from R to D recently—the MN-02 and MN-03—more exurban (or maybe even rural) and less Democratic. It is very likely that the redrawn MN-03 would only lean Democrat while the redrawn MN-02 would lean Republican, which would result in a net loss of one Dem-held seat (and, if 2022 ends up being as good a GOP year as it seemed a few months ago, perhaps even a net of +1R, -2D).