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New York's most confusing race could be a political bellwether (Results are in)
Albany Times Union ^ | 8/23/22 | Roger Hannigan Gilson

Posted on 08/24/2022 5:46:01 AM PDT by 1Old Pro

In the first congressional election of the year, Pat Ryan and Marc Molinaro are vying for the seat left open by Antonio Delgado.

Although the seats have been redrawn for the November rematch this is a poor reflection on the ability of McCarthy and his ability to win close seats.

The Democrat won last night 51-49%.

(Excerpt) Read more at timesunion.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New York
KEYWORDS: antoniodelgado; marcmolinaro; newyork; patryan
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Here's another article with the results: Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro in a special election to replace Antonio Delgado in Congress, a potential bellwether for November's midterms.

https://www.timesunion.com/hudsonvalley/news/article/Pat-Ryan-wins-special-election-over-Marc-Molinaro-17376950.php?IPID=Times-Union-HP-CP-spotlight

1 posted on 08/24/2022 5:46:01 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: 1Old Pro

https://www.timesunion.com/hudsonvalley/news/article/Pat-Ryan-wins-special-election-over-Marc-Molinaro-17376950.php?IPID=Times-Union-HP-CP-spotlight


2 posted on 08/24/2022 5:46:30 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: 1Old Pro

Extremely disconcerting. The fact that 51% of American voters could vote for a disgusting Biden Democrat who’s primary message was that he cannot get enough killing of preborn babies says volumes about the state of the country. NY 19 is said to be a “swing “ district.


3 posted on 08/24/2022 5:53:46 AM PDT by allendale
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To: 1Old Pro

51-49. In a fight over abortion. In New York. A state that legalized abortion long before roe v Wade came in a bellwether?

Not Cheney losing by 37 points. Tge head of j 6. Tge rep of the Cheney budge crim— er political family. That’s not a bellwether

Idiots buy this crap


4 posted on 08/24/2022 5:55:02 AM PDT by stanne
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To: allendale
NY 19 is said to be a “swing “ district.

And only in NY, Delgado flipped this seat from John Faso, who told Trump he didin't want his help. I hear Molinaro is also a never Trumper...when will they learn?

5 posted on 08/24/2022 5:55:10 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: 1Old Pro

You must remember that even Republicans are squishy conservatives in New York. I see no trend here personally. 🙂


6 posted on 08/24/2022 5:55:18 AM PDT by Robert DeLong
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To: allendale

It says a lot about the state of New York.plus the baby killer barely won.


7 posted on 08/24/2022 5:56:17 AM PDT by NKP_Vet
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To: stanne
a fight over abortion. In New York

Exactly, apparently the GOP could not communicate that NYS is an Abortion sanctuary state.

8 posted on 08/24/2022 5:56:39 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: 1Old Pro

New York is a lost cause...get out...many others already have.


9 posted on 08/24/2022 5:58:34 AM PDT by who knows what evil? (Yehovah saved more animals than people on the ark...siameserescue.org)
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To: stanne

I need coffee

51-49. In a fight over abortion. In New York. A state that legalized abortion long before Roe v Wade came in. A bellwether? New York 19th. The refuge of Brooklyn artistes running from the city they destroyed

Not Cheney losing by 37 points. The head of jan 6 kangaroo gang. The rep of the Cheney Bush crim— er political family. That’s not a bellwether? Something like 86 in a long line of Trump endorsements crushing the GOP. After the Supreme Court struck down Roe v Wade.

Idiots buy this crap

Trolls perpetuate it.


10 posted on 08/24/2022 6:01:04 AM PDT by stanne
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To: allendale

“ Extremely disconcerting”

Sorry. Tgat is just silly.


11 posted on 08/24/2022 6:02:57 AM PDT by stanne
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To: 1Old Pro

It’s a non-factor race, second to last week of August to finish out the term of an incumbant Democrat. The problem though, is Ryan is a West Point grad and passed himself off as a moderate. These types of candidates will be a problem for the GOP going forward. Democrats have had success nominating younger, military veteran types that can fool people, Mikie Sherill, Seth Moulton, Connor Lamb, et. al. They are every bit the radicals that Pelosi and AOC are, yet hide it well.

This will become more common as the parties have done a 180 with respect to foreign engagements. Republicans have returned to their isolationist roots while Dems have reverted to interventionist ways.


12 posted on 08/24/2022 6:05:10 AM PDT by usafa92 (Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States of America!)
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To: 1Old Pro

Pshaw bellwether. New York 19. It’s the Hamptons of Tge north

A bellwether?

Here’s a bellwether:

Florida flipped multiple major school boards from liberal to conservative Tuesday evening, continuing a nationwide trend of parents taking back control of public schools.

One of many.


13 posted on 08/24/2022 6:06:14 AM PDT by stanne
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To: NKP_Vet

Actually this is an interesting result. A district which has the city of Ithaca in it barely went for the baby killer.


14 posted on 08/24/2022 6:06:40 AM PDT by Varda
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To: 1Old Pro

“Although the seats have been redrawn for the November rematch ...”

That redrawing actually moves the district slightly to the LEFT though still very marginal, but the point remains that — even under more favorable circumstances — anyone assuming that Republicans are going to win most of the close ones in November is delusional. We have to turn out in numbers that make these races far less close.

Four years ago, in the highest-turnout midterm election in U.S. history, the GOP was annihilated and some presumed it was because our side wasn’t motivated (wrong) while the Rats were highly motivated by their hatred of Trump (bingo).

R turnout was actually UP substantially that year over where it had been in 2014; but D turnout was absolutely off the charts.

The days of Republicans being able to run the table in comparatively low-turnout midterms (1994, 2010, 2014) are OVER. 2018 is the new midterm turnout model, and 2022’s turnout in November (at least on the left) is going to be “2018 on steroids”.

The GOP establishment, the ones who control the ad buys and the purse strings and who support only liberals/moderates while giving the shaft to conservatives, better get on the ball and run good, hard-hitting ads — for ALL candidates, not just their RINO pets — and try to get Republican enthusiasm to be as great as Democrat enthusiasm. It wasn’t in 2018, it wasn’t in 2020, and we’re heading for a repeat in 2022.

IF they don’t get on the ball (and I’m SURE we can count on Ronna Romney and the RNC to do the right thing, LOL) then there are going to be a lot of so-called experts with dazed expressions on their faces on November 9th, looking around helplessly and wondering where “muh red wave” disappeared to.


15 posted on 08/24/2022 6:07:30 AM PDT by PermaRag (We have SO many targets, and -- for now -- the means to see they get what they deserve.)
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To: 1Old Pro

If a ‘rat wins, it’s a bellweather. If a Trump-endorsed republican wins, it’s “nothing to see here”.


16 posted on 08/24/2022 6:13:56 AM PDT by Sans-Culotte (11/3-11/4/2020 - The USA became a banana republic.)
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To: usafa92
Democrats have had success nominating younger, military veteran types that can fool people, Mikie Sherill, Seth Moulton, Connor Lamb, et. al. They are every bit the radicals that Pelosi and AOC are, yet hide it well.

An ex CIA guy won to challenge Elise Stephanik in November.

17 posted on 08/24/2022 6:20:50 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: PermaRag

Excellent comments.


18 posted on 08/24/2022 6:22:03 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: 1Old Pro

Quote: “Although the seats have been redrawn for the November rematch. . . . “

OK now, I have a hard time taking any “doom” article seriously from a left wing rag in the first place. But when they lead it off with the most important information and then ignore said information, I tune out.

First off, this district was held by a democrat. So this is no huge loss.

Second, redrawing the lines in this case favors the GOP candidate greatly, even a crud one like Molinaro.

Third, NY State as a bellwether?! Oh freaking please. A Republican in NY State is a hard sell on the best of days.


19 posted on 08/24/2022 6:36:38 AM PDT by FlipWilson
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To: stanne

Quote: “Idiots buy this crap. Trolls perpetuate it”

Thank you!!! Jeez, bellwether my but. 51-49 in an already Dem held district that will soon be a lot less “swing” courtesy of redistricting.


20 posted on 08/24/2022 6:39:01 AM PDT by FlipWilson
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