Math is hard. 
Posted on 08/22/2022 11:00:51 AM PDT by BeauBo
Sweet!
That'll put a dent in your own personal heating bills this winter.
Me, I'm snagging dry firewood wherever I can. Time to get a face cord or two, also.
“ Those other suppliers were already selling product, so it’s musical chairs with nat gas.”
The Russian gas to Europe is overwhelmingly through pipelines, with no physical means to divert that product to other customers. Those pipelines are throttling off at an historically rapid rate. Building average pipelines takes many years, but Russia’s potential substitute customers are thousands of miles from the fields that served Europe - freakishly far for pipelines.
With a lot of money and time, those Russian deposits could eventually make it to other markets, but frankly, it would be cheaper to develop other deposits around the world instead.
Russian oil is a much more fungible commodity, that they can load onto tanker ships (even though they have the highest average price to produce of any major producer - over $50 per barrel, making them most vulnerable to price drops)
You’ll note that the Prediction Pollyannas like to stay well away from the actual numbers and prices of current energy...
Its not the availability of NG that is important here - its the price. Previously NG was bought on contracts, but now they have to go to the Spot Market and pay way more for the same amount.
It is so high, that energy intensive companies are cutting back on production or shutting down, even in the US this is becoming a problem with at least one major aluminum plant shut because of NG prices.
Eventually, unless governments change their misguided policies and go back to cheap coal power, the West will become effectively de-industrialized.
“It is no accident. Europe has explicitly decided to phase out all Russian energy imports, as fast as they can.”
It’s also no accident that Europe is burning coal again.
Math is hard.
Mmmmm. Lignite.
One step above burning peat...
Yeah, my wood is mostly Juniper, no fun to cut. Hope you get some good burning stuff.
Yeah, I think the American consumer might have something to say about tripling their natural gas bills and doubling their electric bills to increase the profits of American energy companies - when it becomes known that they're bailing out the morons in Europe.
“ LOL!”
Glad you are such a good sport about it.
Russia is getting screwed hard. Tens of millions of Russians are heading below the poverty line, and the best and brightest are leaving.
Putin did that. He is a GAY clown.
Wish I had your royalties cash flow, though. :)
“With a lot of money and time, those Russian deposits could eventually make it to other markets, but frankly, it would be cheaper to develop other deposits around the world instead.”
Yeah thanks, that goes to my point. Total supply will go down when Russia can’t sell, but other suppliers replacing it will take years, or until Russia is allowed to sell again. Nobody is ready to replace Russia’s supply soon.
Unless the current green stupidity is trashed, but Europe and US are run by people with a different agenda.
Sorry, you don't hold any credibility for me today, Wimpy.
“ Yeah, I think the American consumer might have something to say about tripling their natural gas bills”
Putin did that! He is a Gay clown, and needs to have his ass kicked for driving up heating bills.
Send more Artillery!
In Oregon, NW Natural has just applied for a 36% rate increase in natural gas.
Awesome! Red is multiple use, and maple too, everyone loves maple. You should see the quilted maple body on my Fender Jazz 24, looks like orange rippling water.
Take THAT, Putin!!!
My next-door neighbor does fancy wood.
We go pick up a load of birdseye/curly maple/curly birch a couple of times a year.
Your quilted maple Fender is probably the bomb. Good tone?
“ other suppliers replacing it will take years”
Yes, big job, but a big opportunity.
European lenders are investing to increase production capacity elsewhere, like Algeria and Qatar. The oil majors are on the job. The USA has shown a big self financed ability to grow, in recent years.
Supply shortages projected to continue till mid 2024, if you look at futures.
It is expected to get expensive this Winter for natural gas, because of Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine.
Putin did that.
It is a global price spike.
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