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To: Mariner

.75% interest rate hikes are hitting the brakes pretty hard, by historical norms.

This is the fastest rate of interest rate hikes in the USA in about 40 years.

They have been rolling out a series of hikes, and ramped them up from .5% to .75% this time and the last.

Europe is hiking rates too.

The other big lever is the money supply. The Fed is now withdrawing about $100 billion per month (1/3 Market Based Securities, 2/3 Treasuries). They are reversing the quantitative easing policy of recent years, with quantitative tightening.

By historical norms, we are in an exceptional period of monetary tightening, and it is in particularly sharp contrast to the exceptional period of loosening that preceded it.

It is likely going to hurt, and we have likely not seen the full effects yet of what has already been done. Home sales seem to be showing a slowdown, as an early indicator, but employment is masked by the fact that we are still rebounding from the unusual COVID lows.

Technically, we are now in recession (two quarters of negative GDP growth), but the drops have been small so far (1% to 1.5%).

We will probably see more recession this year and next - reducing demand, energy consumption, inflation and corporate earnings/stock market performance.


15 posted on 07/28/2022 9:28:36 AM PDT by BeauBo
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To: BeauBo
This is the fastest rate of interest rate hikes in the USA in about 40 years.

I remember those times too well. It was during the Carter years, when the prices of gasoline rose very quickly. I was having a hell of a time paying for gas to fill my 1965 Oldsmobile 98, a real gas guzzler.

The plot in this site summarizes it well:

https://www.gobankingrates.com/banking/interest-rates/see-interest-rates-last-100-years/

29 posted on 08/05/2022 9:48:59 PM PDT by Deaf and Discerning
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