Is this a reflection on the quality of the Russian Air Force and pilots that we would consider this as doable?
Would we try this against a high quality air force?
I think the air arm of the RF army is not the main consideration. Here’s a digression, but it’s relevant.
About two days ago the UFA had success with HIMARS hitting the Antonov bridge near Kherson, as well as a bridge/dam area a bit north. Because the HIMARS only carries a 23kg warhead, the damage was very limited, but repeated days like that could destroy that infrastructure. Why did the HIMARS work so effectively on that occasion? Because the UFA intelligence arm learned that the RF had rotated out the S300s protecting that infrastructure, and the UFA pounced. Within the last 24 hrs 12 more HIMARS were launched, and all of them were shot down. Why? Because the RF had moved in S400s.
My point is that the RF air defense is known to be “scary good” by military experts, and the HIMARS wipe out is evidence that that opinion should be respected. The RF also has more advanced S500s to deploy, and S550s about ready to deploy. My concern is that any combat aircraft is a far easier target than a HIMARS missile (small radar profile and a very small physical target). If we send in UFA “trained”, but rookie pilots, in F 16s etc. against RF air defenses, I fear it would not only be an escalation, but it would also be a turkey shoot. In sum, sending planes is a very bad idea. Of course, our defense contractors would be quite happy to have planes sent.
I think the air arm of the RF army is not the main consideration. Here’s a digression, but it’s relevant.
About two days ago the UFA had success with HIMARS hitting the Antonov bridge near Kherson, as well as a bridge/dam area a bit north. Because the HIMARS only carries a 23kg warhead, the damage was very limited, but repeated days like that could destroy that infrastructure. Why did the HIMARS work so effectively on that occasion? Because the UFA intelligence arm learned that the RF had rotated out the S300s protecting that infrastructure, and the UFA pounced. Within the last 24 hrs 12 more HIMARS were launched, and all of them were shot down. Why? Because the RF had moved in S400s.
My point is that the RF air defense is known to be “scary good” by military experts, and the HIMARS wipe out is evidence that that opinion should be respected. The RF also has more advanced S500s to deploy, and S550s about ready to deploy. My concern is that any combat aircraft is a far easier target than a HIMARS missile (small radar profile and a very small physical target). If we send in UFA “trained”, but rookie pilots, in F 16s etc. against RF air defenses, I fear it would not only be an escalation, but it would also be a turkey shoot. In sum, sending planes is a very bad idea. Of course, our defense contractors would be quite happy to have planes sent.