Posted on 03/18/2022 3:53:19 PM PDT by TigerLikesRoosterNew
North Korea as a Beneficiary of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
BY: RUEDIGER FRANK
MARCH 16, 2022 COMMENTARY, FOREIGN AFFAIRS
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a military invasion of Ukraine. The world is only starting to understand the resulting geoeconomic and geopolitical consequences, but it is safe to say that they are and will be substantial and that North Korea is likely to benefit in economic, political and military ways.
The most significant and tangible gains for North Korea will be economic. It is worth remembering that the severe economic crisis of the mid-1990s resulted from a sudden drop in the import of Russian oil when a transition from socialist friendship prices to capitalist market prices in US dollars occurred. This dramatically reduced the production and availability of chemical fertilizer, fuel and other petrochemical industry products in North Korea and contributed to the deadly famine known as the “Arduous March.”[1]
The current situation could lead to a reversal of that development. While Russia is still a major oil and gas producer, it now faces massive difficulties in exporting these crucial contributors for its national income. It remains to be seen whether a growth-dependent China can resist the temptation of heavily discounted Russian oil and gas prices, even more so if, at the same time, prices for oil and gas from other sources on the world market explode. But while there is the possibility that China will decide to act strategically, give in to international pressure and join the anti-Russian sanctions one way or another, it seems very unlikely that North Korea will do so. Being a pariah state has its advantages, and one of them is not having much to lose.
(Excerpt) Read more at 38north.org ...
Who was the beneficiary of our invasion of Cuba during the Cuban missile crisis?
Many more North Koreans will starve this year due to the embargo of Russian nitrates and the disruption of Ukrainian and Russian grain production.
Obama gave Iran a sweetheart deal and Biden is about to make an even worse deal with Iran. North Korea wants a sweetheart deal too.
‘’Many more North Koreans will starve this year due to the embargo of Russian nitrates and the disruption of Ukrainian and Russian grain production.’’
————-
Its actually the exact opposite
Before the Yeltsin administration introduced a more market-oriented approach, North Korea’s economy had for many years relied on Soviet oil imports. The resulting structures for delivery and processing are outdated but still in place, including the huge Sungri (Sŭngni) Oil Refinery in North Korea’s Rason Special Economic Zone, with an estimated annual capacity to process 2.5 million tons of oil. If North Korea can resume oil imports at a pre-sanctions level, and maybe even at preferential prices, it might experience a small economic boom.
More fertilizer, more fuel and more refined products will mean higher agriculture and industry output. Thinking beyond the relatively small domestic market, it is also possible that North Korea could become a semi-official transit country for trade between Russia and China, and in the wake of international pressure would thereby provide a formal cover for the latter not to deal with Moscow directly.
It can be done but not on large scale, in which case the cover will be blown. This would mitigate the effect of sanction on Russian Far East.
If the world’s supply of fertilizer is reduced significantly every country will suffer the consequences. Those nations where starvation is a significant issue during the best of world harvests will be impacted first and most severely. I’ve seen statements that up to 40% of world nitrate production is in Russia/Ukraine. I know there are supply issues here in the US already. If that 40% figure is anywhere near accurate, third world starvation will dramatically increase this year.
Russians are sitting on tons of them they cannot sell due to sanction. It is not hard to imagine that they will be glad to sell at a steep discount if anybody is willing to buy, which N. Koreans can exploit.
North Korea gets all of its fertilizer imports from China along with food imports to make up their shortfalls. Apparently Brazil, India and China (Russia’s BRICs economic group partners) aren’t completely in on any sanctions. Imported Russian fertilizer will be available to them, not the rest of the world. Ukrainian production is probably totally lost to the world. You are probably right China will be the facilitator between its old and new client states, the NORKS and the Russians.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.