Posted on 03/07/2022 1:15:33 PM PST by blam
With the US reportedly said to vote as soon as Tuesday on a proposal to ditch trade relations with Russia and Belarus, including suspending oil imports despite repeated objections from Germany which has stated that a collapse in supply threatens “social cohesion”, Russian Deputy PM Novak said that a ban on Russian oil would result in catastrophic consequences for global market according to Interfax, warning that Europe is pushing Russia towards an embargo on gas deliveries through Nord Stream 1, which is currently filled to maximum capacity, although Moscow has not taken this decision yet.
Warning that “no one would benefit from an embargo on gas deliveries through Nord Stream 1”, Novak said that replacing Russian oil deliveries to Europe would take longer than a year.
He also warned that a global embargo on Russian oil could push prices over USD 300/bbl, although he said that Russia knows where it would re-direct oil to if Europe and US refuse it.
Addressing a potential ban on Russian oil, Goldman’s commodities team wrote overnight that Europe’s dependence on Russian oil imports, of c. 4.3 mb/d of which 0.8 mb/d comes from pipeline, suggests that such a coordinated response will likely take time, leaving the possibility for only a US ban in short order.
While the headline of potential further US sanctions are likely to support prices, such a move would likely have negligible impacts on global crude and products markets. The US only imports a little over 400 kb/d from Russia at present (Dec-Feb average), already down from a peak of 770 kb/d in May-Jun 2021. As such, volumes this small are well within the market’s ability to redirect flows and as such Goldman expects minimal overall impact on crude fundamentals.
Such statements will nonetheless likely continue to severely curtail Russian seaborne oil exports, due to the threat of additional sanctions or of public censure. Case in point, the sole purchase of a cargo on Friday was immediately followed by public reprobration, strongly disincentivizing further Western acquisition, with so far no sign of Chinese purchases either.
This, Goldman concludes, “leaves risk to our $115/bbl short-term oil forecast clearly skewed strongly to the upside.”
Nukes would fly well before that price-point.
Meanwhile, Jen Psaki says we cannot increase supply because of the environment, so suffer, freeze to death next Winter, it’s our fault for not cutting back.
Why? Natgas is $4000 in Europe.
Yep. It’s well known that foreign imported oil doesn’t produce greenhouse gases like US and Canadian oil does.
Besides the energy prices, I was reading today that Belarus and Russia are two the largest producers of fertilizer in the world and banning trade with those countries will have a huge impact on crop production this year in the USA.
Farmers all over the midwest are gearing up for planting season and if they can’t get fertilizer or the cost is astronomically higher, get ready for real food shortages and exploding prices.
If you think Biden’s approval numbers are low now wait until oil hits $200 a barrel and gasoline is averaging $5 /gallon. All those Trump loathers …are you better off with dementia Joe as POTUS?
It will be tough sledding but energy independence, here we come!
Wonder how many Leftist/Liberal/Green politicians will stand in front of that political tsunami?
Russia is getting hysterical, a sure sign they are feeling the pain.
Gasoline just hit 4.00 in CT.
The free flow of fuel, fertilizer, and food should not be sacrificed to make political points.
That’s BS.
...And they will worship the creation rather than the Creator...
Russia is waiting us out. They are smiling as we squirm over rising energy prices. And Biden and his puppet masters don’t give a damn how much people suffer because they only care about appeasing the Greens.
There is one reason why this won’t happen:
Largest crude importers, barrels per day:
1) China - 10,852,615
2) USA - 5,877,000
3) India - 4,033,050
4) Japan - 2,472,364
China would invade Siberia before they allow oil to go to $300.
Environmentalism is their God.
Will ‘Victory Gardens’ Make Comeback As Global Food Crisis Worsens?
Gas is heading toward $8.00 around San Francisco. It’s already over $7.70.
Or...WE COULD PRODUCE OUR OWN!
Yup. Economic warfare that leaves the entire population in tatters is more serious than skirmishes between soldiers.
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