Posted on 12/10/2021 4:04:05 PM PST by janetjanet998
Many discrete supercell storms are trying to develop from S IL south into MS..many are starting to rotate
another area back more NW in MO
and yet a third from central AR to NE TX
wide moist warm sector and cooling temps aloft will increase instability over night as storm dynamics and low levels winds increase
models showed this happening and a moderate risk was issued
however it now appears those models are correct at this early stage
lastest SPC outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2021
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST AR/SOUTHEAST MO INTO WESTERN TN/KY AND
SOUTHERN IL...
AMENDED TO INCREASE SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
..SUMMARY
A FEW STRONG TORNADOES, DAMAGING GUSTS, AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALL
EXPECTED BEGINNING THIS EVENING ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI, WITH
THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT CLOSE TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS. THE DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
NORTHEAST TEXAS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING A BIT FARTHER
WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, AND LITTLE CHANGE IS
NEEDED AT 20Z.
AT 19Z, A DRYLINE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM NORTH TX
INTO OK, WITH GRADUAL WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION NOTED EASTWARD
INTO AR. UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE IS ALREADY IN PLACE THERE, WITH
FURTHER WARMING ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S F.
WHILE CAPPING CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER MOST AREAS, THE DEEPENING MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST BECOME UNCAPPED PRIOR TO 00Z OVER AR, AND
THIS WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH TORNADO THREAT
EVOLVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KY/TN THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE, EXPANDING STORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY AROUND 03Z ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE MS AND OH
VALLEYS, WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR FAVORING TORNADOES, POSSIBLY STRONG.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE AR AND SOUTHEAST MO AREA, SEE MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 1978.
..DARROW.. 12/10/2021
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1018 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2021/
..AR/MO THIS EVENING TO TN/OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
A BROAD MIDLEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TO THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH IS PRECEDED BY A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE THAT WILL DEVELOP FROM
KS TODAY TO NORTHERN MO THIS EVENING, WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DEEPENING OVERNIGHT TOWARD LOWER MI. THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD FROM I-40 IN EASTERN OK/AR TO I-70 IN MO/IL BY
THIS EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF THE WARM SECTOR INTO
TN/KY/IN/OH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED
65-70 F BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING,
BENEATH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 7.5 C/KM. SURFACE HEATING IN
CLOUD BREAKS AND CONTINUED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL
RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKENING OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN
THE OPEN WARM SECTOR AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY THIS EVENING, WHEN
STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED.
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS
AND SOME LOW-LEVEL, CLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN THE WARM SECTOR
(EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 70 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS
OF 300 M2/S2). MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG, COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR, WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL INITIALLY, WITH INCREASING STORM
COVERAGE AND A GREATER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT (IN
ADDITION TO A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT). A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR
FROM AR INTO MO BY 21-00Z, WITH STORMS EXPECTED INCREASE IN COVERAGE
(BOTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT) AND MOVE RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
thats one of the watches two more over MO/IL
good live coverage
LIVE! Extreme Tornado Outbreak Coverage, Storm Chaser ON THE GROUND, Live Weather Channel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7Ga1P1Zmyg
I prepped my storm closet earlier. I miss the TORCON days when Dr. Forbes was at the Weather Channel.
new watch lower OH valley into MS
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
620 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2021
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN TO CENTRAL KENTUCKY
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 620 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...INITIALLY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE, WITH AN ADDITIONAL
SUPERCELL OR TWO POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OUT OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
BROADER CLUSTERING AND LINEAR SEGMENTS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
This sure looks like a spring weather event.
I’ve been getting alerts in Central Indiana all day
Not a dire warnings as yours, but you just never know
Thanks for this. In MS. I HATE tornados.
This sure looks like a spring weather event.
This is getting out of hand fast
multiple lines of storms over a wide areas
very fast moving and at night
Please Lord, let it avoid Jonesboro. It took us two years to rebuild from the one that hit in 2019.
I still have memories of the Dec 5, 1975 tornado in Tulsa OK.
Also the Memorial day flood of 1976 Tulsa. Wiped us out.
Please Lord, let it avoid Jonesboro.
—
May go just SE or skirt the SE side of the city
Amazingly enough he was right more often than not.
Well if they touch down generally speaking they do do damage. Hopefully not for you.
We just caught a portion of that here in Central Missouri. It looks like we’re right in between a couple cells right now.
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