Yep. In 2020 he had a narrow win on the old lines which were D+7. After redistricting, his district is D+1.
Even in his old district, he’ll probably lose anyway because 2022 is looking like a “wave” year similar to 2010 and 1994. GOP should be able to capture at least +50 in the House. More Hispanics will vote Republican. Blacks won’t show up. Soccer moms will vote red because they’ve not happy with their school boards (See Virginia).
He has been winning with 65 to 75% til 2020 where he won with 54 % — hardly close. My understanding is the 2019 re-draw changes it to D+3 but I don’t doubt your D+1 for the new re-drawn boundaries.
As I just moved to this district I am enthusiastic that it will be an open seat but as the racial makeup is about equal and it was I the 1800s that I his district last elected a Repubby I am not holding my breath.
Perhaps if the Lt. Gov runs for Governor enough blacks could cross to elect a R congressman.