Posted on 11/17/2021 3:03:12 PM PST by SpeedyInTexas
anything over 90% in that table they had to GOTV hard.
1882 was the last time a Republican was elected within the 1st (albeit with some altered lines, but generally the same area), and that member died before Congress convened and was replaced by a Dem in the special election.
Butterball obviously sees the writing on the wall.
Wasn’t Lara Trump going to run for something in NC?
NC Senate. But she backed out.
I’d like to pour syrup over her body
She was until another Republican also decided to run and Lara decided they had a better chance. I think.
Haven’t read his name in years! When did he pass away?
No. She decided not to. Her father-in-law decided to support the GOP guy who is running to take Richard Burr’s seat. I can’t think of his name right now...
I heard that Jennie-O will be running for his vacated seat.
The COOK PVI (average of the last 2 POTUS races) for the new seat is D+1 according to 538 project. I’m also hearing Poopypants carried the district by 51-48, which would imply that Trump carried it by 2 in 2016, but it sure looked to me like the area trended GOP, and indeed the old district got 2 points BETTER for Trump in 2020 so IDK what’s up.
538s PVI is a little different than Cook’s. 538 uses 50% Presidential, 25% Congressional and 25% State legislative races. Cook is just Presidential.
The area did trend right in 2020. In fact all of the rural black area in Northeastern NC trended right. It was enough to offset the left trend of the Wake and Mecklenburg suburbs.
Ah, thank you. I did not know that about 538.
I’d rather know the POTUS #s straight up, ticket splitting is at a modern nadir. If you know of resource with POTUS numbers for the new seats let me know. The scum over at Daily Kos have only done Oregon so far.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.