Posted on 11/02/2021 6:14:43 AM PDT by devane617
The 2020 census missed an estimated 1.6 million people, but given hurdles posed by the pandemic and natural disasters, the undercount was smaller than expected, according to an analysis by a think tank that did computer simulations of the nation’s head count.
The analysis, done by the Urban Institute and released Tuesday, found that people of color, renters, noncitizens, children and people living in Texas — the state that saw the nation’s largest growth — were most likely to be missed, though by smaller margins than some had projected for a count conducted in the midst of a global pandemic. Still, those shortfalls could affect the drawing of political districts and distribution of federal spending.
The analysis estimates there was a 0.5% undercount of the nation’s population during the 2020 census. If that modeled estimate holds true, it would be greater than the 0.01% undercount in the 2010 census but in the same range as the 0.49% undercount in the 2000 census.
The 2020 head count of the nation’s 331 million residents last year faced unprecedented challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic, wildfires in the West, hurricanes on the Gulf Coast andattempts at politicizationby the Trump administration. The census is used to determine how many congressional seats each state gets, provides the data used for drawing political districts and helps determine the allocation of $1.5 trillion in federal spending each year.
“The fact that the undercount wasn’t larger is surprising and certainly a good news story,” said Diana Elliott, principal research associate at the Urban Institute. “This undercount suggests the 2020 census may not be as close in accuracy as 2010, but it may not be as dire as some had feared.”
The official undercount or overcount of the census won’t be known until next year when the Census Bureau releases a report card on its accuracy. The bureau’s post-enumeration survey measures the accuracy of the census by independently surveying a sample of the population and estimating how many people and housing units were missed or counted erroneously
The Urban Institute created computer simulations that modeled the count by demographic characteristics and geography. Despite the smaller-than-expected national undercount, it showed wide ranges based on race, ethnic background, age and among U.S. states and metro areas.
In 2020, Black and Hispanic people had net undercounts of more than 2.45% and 2.17%, respectively, according to the Urban Institute estimates, while they were respectively 2.07% and 1.54% in 2010.
There was an overcount of white residents by 0.39%, according to the Urban Institute, and undercounts of Asians, Native Americans and Hawaiian or Pacific Islanders by 0.6%, 0.36% and 1.5%, respectively.
Did they count 20% as being in same-sex relationships?
. Someone sure found them for the 2020 elections
“ The 2020 census missed an estimated 1.6 million people…”
Which, coincidentally, is the number of illegals crossing the border in the last 9 months.
The 1870 census missed my great-great-great-grandfather, who was living in Oregon. He wasn’t Asian, Native American, Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, nor an illegal immigrant. I think the 1870 census missed a lot of people, maybe because of conditions after the Civil War, but I don’t think there were many Civil War battles fought in Oregon.
Could be several reasons. I find that people who moved were missed by census rolls. Also, spelling was sometimes a factor.
“Estimate”....aka....guess based on viewpoint
My wife and I moved in 2020. We never got a census form, and nobody came to visit.
I go a different path and look up deeds to chase people down. In the old days, that worked well. But with more people renting, it’s difficult and newspapers sometime turn out as a good source.
I had a fairly mobile lifestyle in my younger days. The census also missed me in 1980 (moving around a lot), 1990 (ignored it), and 2000 (interstate move). Before that, I was still living in my parents’ home, so it’s only one for five for my adult life.
What am I missing? If it can be determined just what the census should have found, then is the census necessary? Which of the numbers is used for the purposes of counting in the first place?
There were a lot of places you could be missed in 1870’s Oregon.
He was living with his second wife (not my ancestor) on a farm a few miles from Salem. He’s on the 1871 tax rolls so at least the tax collectors knew where to find him.
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