You're probably right. Baldwin is a lefty, therefore "protected" from his own mistakes up to a stupendous level. He'll no-doubt get away with negligent homicide here.
They'll vilify who-ever used the firearm and returned it to the set without clearing it. That is all well and good, that person or persons made a serious mistake.
But they also need to realize that at least 3 other people made serious mistakes.
The armorer put it on a cart for use - without checking it.
The assistant director picked it up, announced it was a "cold gun" - without checking it.
Baldwin accepted it from the assistant director and used it - without checking it.
Of the 3 or 4 people involved in this chain of events/mistakes that led up to a fatal shooting I fault Mr. Baldwin the most, and the armorer a close second.
Mr. Baldwin is most at fault. If someone hands you a real firearm it is basic firearm safety to check it. Period. Even more so given that you intend to point it at someone - someone you don't actually want to shoot. You are going to intentionally violate a couple of the basic rules of firearm safety, so you had damn well better make sure you are following the others. It is inconceivable to me that he would pick up a firearm to point and shoot at someone without verifying two or three times - himself - that it was empty. I couldn't do it. I would have to check it two or three times, I'd then point it at the ground and dry fire it through probably 12 times, twice around the cylinder.
The armorer screwed up nearly as bad. They are supposed to be the professional on set. There is no excuse for her actions.
The assistant director I could almost forgive as having made a simple mistake - picking up a firearm and not checking it. You shouldn't, if you handle firearms and are at all trained you should know to check it. However, someone untrained, yes it is all too believable an untrained fool would pick up a firearm and assume its condition. However, announcing it was "cold" without actually having checked it is unforgivable.
Baldwin is the Producer. The buck stops with him.
You are illustration my point actually. The Prosecutor can say that we believe that proving negligence of Mr. Baldwin beyond a reasonable doubt has practical difficulties, given the involvement of multiple agencies that contributed to the harm. Whether to prosecute is up to their discretion - in a 71% Biden district.