Oh I know it’s real. I don’t generally import directly but I deal with dozens of suppliers who either do, or source from someone who does. I buy basic commodity type stuff - not straight from the farm commodities but basic materials used in all kinds of industries like textiles, cosmetics, food, healthcare, household goods, paints etc. Everyone is mad scrambling right now. Prices are up well over 10% on most goods I purchase and everyone expects they will continue upward.
And these are not really high margin goods. They are used to make high margin goods. So one of the problems is, as noted, the people importing higher margin goods like TVs and computers and $400 sneakers are paying to “jump the line” and get loaded ahead of these low margin suppliers who can’t pay the premium. Items that in 2019 were readily available across the country are being quoted at 80-100 days lead time and that’s just an estimate.
I try as best I can to buy American but the “dirty secret” is it’s not just the Nike’s and Apple’s who are importing. American suppliers of industrial commodities are and have been having their goods manufactured in China or Asia in general, bringing them here in bulk and repacking them here for resale in the USA.
I have been trying to close a deal, several actually, but I can’t (and won’t) over-promise and under-deliver. If I can’t make a delivery date I won’t promise to make it. And that is preventing me from closing a deal since the clients won’t place an open-ended PO. Too much may change in 100 days and they will have other opportunities. And I sure don’t want to take a PO now only to have it cancelled in July leaving me with goods to unload. I’m trying but it really is a mad scramble. I think I will close the deals I just can’t be sure of when. I did find a supplier who uses some of the materials to process their own products, and they have agreed to siphon some off and sell to me raw. So a glimmer of hope there. These closures and lockdowns have really run a number on us.
And yes, we give them paper and they give us consumer goods. If I lived on a few acres I’d buy some containers and build a zombie apocalypse shelter. But I live too close to a city. There are companies that retrofit those containers into living quarters and they could make decent shelter for the homeless for a lot less than it costs to build an apartment building. And easier on the eyes than tents on the streets or in the parks.
In your opinion, what effect will the current supply chain disruption + increasing prices, have on the US economy 6 months, 9 months, 1 year out? Would Trump being President have helped given his broad experience in supply chain issues and his ability to negotiate on behalf of American interests? Is printing money, inflating the money supply, at the root of this chaos?
Tariffs will end the globalist BS real quick. Make it here...