Referring to the graph above, China’s production share rose sharply through the 1990s and reached a peak of 97.5% in 2005.
But From there, China’s share suffered a steady decline that dramatically deepened in 2017, until China accounted for 58.3% of global REE ores in 2020. The accelerated decline is largely due to the Trump administration’s push to increase U.S. REE mining, which grew from nothing to the world’s second largest producer, and the rapid growth in REE ores from Myanmar, which increased from nothing in 2017 to the world’s third largest producer.
With the discovery of new deposits and mines reopening outside China, such as Burundi’s Gakara Rare Earth Project and South Africa’s Steenkampskraal mine, the outlook is poor for China to regain its overwhelming dominance in REE mining. In this regard, China is beginning to look like a paper tiger, suggesting that the best U.S. response would ensure the operation of normal market forces.
We have rare earths in the USA. China mines those things more cheaply than anyone else. That’s why they produce most of it. If they cut off the supply other mines would begin to operate. The price would go up for a while but any shortage would be short lived.
But there’s no money to be made if people aren’t kept frightened.
The Chinese are buying Canadian mines as fast as they can. Biden is slowing down our own mining operations by denying permits.