Ethiopia nears (Civil) war as PM orders military into defiant region (Tigray)

Ethiopia’s Nobel Peace Prize-winning prime minister on Wednesday ordered the military to confront the country’s Tigray regional government after he accused it of a deadly attack on a military base, declaring “the last red line has been crossed” after months of alleged provocations.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s move against the well-armed Tigray People’s Liberation Front raised concerns that one of Africa’s most populous and powerful countries could plunge into civil war. That would send a shock wave through one of the world’s most turbulent regions, the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia’s neighbors include Somalia and Sudan, and the prospect of spreading instability sent a chill down observers’ spines...

Abiy in a televised address announced “several martyrs” in the overnight attack in Mekele, the northern Tigray region’s capital, and Dansha town. He said “the end is near” for the regional force, based in Ethiopia’s most sensitive region, neighboring Eritrea...

Fighting continued Wednesday afternoon, and the TPLF claimed it had captured and killed Ethiopian army officers, a government statement said hours later.

The TPLF dominated Ethiopia’s governing coalition before Abiy took office in 2018 and announced sweeping political reforms that won him the Nobel last year. Those reforms, however, opened space for ethnic and other grievances. The TPLF, feeling marginalized by the shifts in power, left the coalition last year. Its strong military force has been reinforced in recent months, but analysts said it’s little match for the federal government.

Ethiopia declared a six-month state of emergency in Tigray on Wednesday, saying “illegal and violent activities” are “threatening the country’s sovereignty.”...

Internet and phone lines were cut in Tigray, provoking distress among people who could not reach loved ones. Tigray TV reported that airspace had been closed over the region...

The article goes on to say:

"Ethiopia was already stressed by a dispute with Egypt over a massive Ethiopian dam project that has drawn rare attention by President Donald Trump to Africa, and by a multi-layer crisis with the COVID-19 pandemic, deadly ethnic violence and a locust outbreak.

Now the greatest test of Abiy’s rule has come, as the fighting in Tigray could inspire other restive regions in Ethiopia...

In September, Tigray voted in an election that defied the federal government and increased tensions over a region of some 5 million people that despite its small share of Ethiopia’s population of 110 million has had outsize influence...

Abiy’s statement accused the TPLF of arming and organizing irregular militias in recent weeks.

“TPLF has chosen to wage war,” his office said. “The last red line has been crossed with this morning’s attacks and the federal government is therefore forced into a military confrontation” to save the country...

...the fragmentation of Ethiopia “would be the largest state collapse in modern history, likely leading to mass interethnic and interreligious conflict ... and a humanitarian and security crisis at the crossroads of Africa and the Middle East on a scale that would overshadow the existing conflicts in South Sudan, Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen.”"

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