COVID-19 Update - 10/30/2020

My own workup | 10/30/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 226

As of 10/29/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information⁵
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Fatalities and New Cases in the United States

Fatalities fell by 13 cases from the previous day, to come in at 1040
yesterday. That was actually a 7.00% rise from the same day the previous
week.

New Cases rose by 7,197 from the day before, to come in at 90,967
yesterday. That was an 18.34% increase from the same day the week before.

Fatalaties and New Cases on the Global Scene

Fatalities dropped by 549 cases from the previous day, to come in at 7,208
yesterday. That was a 12.43% increase from the same day the previous week.

New Cases rose by 45,469 cases from the day before, to come in at 574,610
yesterday. This was an 12.74% increase from the same day the week before.

This was a new Global Daily Record for New Cases in one day, and while that
12.74% increase from the same day last week doesn't sound too good, it
doesn't reflace that percent stood for 64,936 more cases yesterday than last
week.

New Case Records, both Globally and Domestically

The United States and the Global Community as a while saw new records again
yesterday for declared cases. The Global Community Declared 574,610 New
Cases, and the United Stated Declared 90,967.

Testing was very elevated over the last two days. Over six million tests
were claimed, while normal testing runs about 1.0-1.2 million per day.
See the note regarding Tests just below this one, to see what that resulted
in.

We seem to be experiencing a new wave globally. I could see a New Wave
making sense as we and the Global Community relaxed some of the lock-down
measures around the end of May. Now we may be seeing an effect from
cooler weather. A third premise is that there is an effort to show alot
more new cases to hurt Trump. I can't say for sure what is driving
this. We did have an upturn in early June, but I don't think that was
very effective at damaging Trump, and I don't think rising cases now will
either.

The Testing Stats Area Dynamics, Midway Down Section: 02

Data provided revealed over 4.78 million test the day before yesterday. I had
hoped it was a clerical error. Evidently it wasn't because yesterday
there were 1.47 million tests, a new single day record all it's own. We
have come to expect the Leftist to taint everything going into the
election. Although the testing over the last two days was about 5.0
times higher than normal, the number of cases came in only 10-20%
higher. If we look at it that way, this tactic seems to have backfired
big-time.

Global Scene New Milestones

The Global Scene declared it's 45 millionth New Case yesterday.
The Global Scene also declared it's 33 millionth Recovery.
The Global Scene now has in exacess of 11 million Active Cases.

United States Milestones You'll See in the Report for the 30th.

The United States will see its 6 millionth Recovery.
The United States will see its 3 millionth Active Case.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America

Here we go...

New Case Declarations rose by 7,197 cases yesterday.

Please take note of the Resolved Percentage level on the right.
It fell off again yesterday.

The number is significant enough now to take note of it daily now.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

Active Cases rose by 40,634 cases yesterday.

Serious/Critical cases rose by 104.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been decreasing recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

This area has been looking a little better day by day, for around a month now.

We dropped about 6.00% in the Active Case slice of the pie in the last month.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

The Active Cases are rising day by day. Using this metric we are experiencing
a new wave at this time. About all we can do is wait to see how severe it
becomes. Severe is probably the worng word here, but I think you know what
I mean.

I reference it as the third wave, but Fauci has let it be known, he still thinks
we're on the first wave. He may be right. I'm not sure what the scientific
requirements are to declare a wave over. If it settles down, that seems like
an end to me, and the chart looks for all the world like a third wave is in full
swing now.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.

Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary ass much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.

In the last two days we have (supposedly) given over 6 million tests.
I can't believe that, so it stands to reason they put in a massive
clearical increase the day before yesterday. If these tests were
for just two days, that would be over five time higher than normal.
I'm not sure they can physically do that.

Some folks are convinced they'll do anything to make Trump look bad, but
achieving a 10-20% increase in New Cases, while providing over 5 times
more tests, doesn't exactly come off as a big payoff.

You are welcome to look at the percentages. I'm not going to bother
pointing anything out tonight beyond what I have.

You can see that ridiculous drop out of the single-day positive rate.
The numbers were so skewed, even the 14-day line made a very noticable correction.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers. I may be wrong
not to do so, but I don't plan to put much weight in those figures for a
few days until they normalize.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to watch.

 

The New Case Declarations line is moving on up.

The Active Case line is rising.

I have been saying I wasn't too happy with the Recoveries and Resolved Cases
lines there. At the present time they don't seem moving toward flattening any
longer. They may show some strengthling almost imperceptibly.

Compare to the rise of Recovered and Resolved cases on the Global Scene to see
a different more healthy trajectory. These look lethargic by comparison, but a
a little less so.

You can right click view to see the Global Chart enlarged.

United States Movers and Shakers...

I will present the U S States with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities rankings.

Here we go...

Texas and Texas, that dynamic duo took the top spots again yesterday.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

New Case Declarations rose by 45,491 yesterday.

The Resolved Percentage fell off a little again. Sadly it looks like we'll
drop below 75.00% tomorrow or certainly the next day.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

Active Cases rose by 304,482 cases, in accordance with the large number
of New Cases declared yesterday. Serious/Critical cases rose up also by
over just under 1,000 cases. Not good.

82,263 is a big number for this metric. What it means is that it is more
likely that there will be more fatalities out of these compromised cases.

We want that number to be as small as possible.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

The middle/important number rose a lot yesterday. It could have been bigger,
But the United States larger than normal number mitigated it to a
certain extent. It was still a record for this metric.

Global and domestic numbers rose here yesterday. It was a record day
for both Global and Domestic new cases.

The blue line depicting New Cases, is still trending up steadily.
It appears to be higher than the peak of the second wave. We will
see our 300,000th Active Case tomorrow. (on the 30th)

One thing we can be thankful for, is that our line is not breaking out
upward like the Global Community is. (of course our numbers do contribute
to that also.

The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the United States' version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Global Active Cases are growing considerably, and both the above charts are
showing an uptick more clearly each day now. The format of the graph is
looking considerably modified in recent days over the past.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Ug!

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden had flattened out a bit after that correction a while back, but I
don't like what I'm seeing on their chart line.

The Netherlands... yikes.

Global Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

The United States has taken the top spots off an on recently. Yesterday
it took them both again.

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Agveraging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

 

The Active Case chart line is turning up. Sorry to see it.

In the United States chart like this one, the Recoveries, and Resolved
Case lines have not shown near the strength as is revealed here with these
upward bound lines.

That chart is provided here, in a small version, but you can see it full size
if you right click view.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.003% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

We wound up at 75.207% for Resolved Cases yesterday Globally. It looks
as thought tomorrow we'll see that figure drop below 75.00%. (the 30th)

Folks should view up the column to see what the trend here has been
recently.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Active Cases rose up 304,482 cases to come in at 11,271,189 yesterday.

Serious/Critical cases rose. The total there is a large number.

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Fatalities were off across the board yesterday, but our rediction was
rather anemic compared to the others.

The other areas rose also, it being a Wednesday. It's that time of the week.

Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.

Here, let's look at data for the United States broken out by itself.

That 1,040 Fatalities yesterday was larger than I would like to have
seen. That's three over 1,000 Fatality days this week so far.

This amounts to a few hundred more than we have been seeing. Compared to
our populace at large, these numbers are very tiny. We don't like to
see it, but this isn't something to be overly disturbed by.

That next to the last week was higher than recent normal. Curious how
this week will play out overall.

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.

This area hasn't looked too good lately. Not good...

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

I expanded the levels here. We had nations who were seeing serious
growth, and their levels weren't showing up very well at the top.

Over 50% of the 215 nations we're tracking now, have declared over 10,000 cases,
but they have far less of them still Active. Over 30% of the nations we're
tracking have delared over 50,000 cases along the way. None of them have
anything near their declared amount remaining active. Keep that in mind.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

In grouping three there, we see a very large jump over the prior week.

The last three weeks number have each been much higher than the week
before. We're seeing in Europe. We're seeing it here.

The problem is, how will Leftists around the world seek to capitalize on
these numbers. One thing is certain, the fix a Marxist government would
institute would not be something any of our citizens would want to see.

Cooler heads prevail. This is a communcable disease that is hard to
combat. We will conquer it in time. Patience and understanding are called
for, and the American people will deliver on that.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped in early July
if memory serves me well.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China did not update that number until 09/02/20. On that date they
raised the number to 160,000,000. As of October 3rd, 2020, they haven't updeded
it again. So I do not inlude China in the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding
Testing, and any place that reports out global testing numbers for a top level
comparison.

Please note that global testing on the Dashboard was only deducting China's
90,410,000 figure from 09/02 through 10/02/2020. I should have been
deducting the 160,000,000 figure, and all global figures during that period
were 69,590,000 tests too high.

We remained in 19th place yesterday.

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁹,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

[lightman]

Pennsylvania Nursing Home (LTC) death stats for October 30

Data from PA Department of Health, figures as of midnight October 29-30

http://www.health.pa.gov

LTC deaths = 5800 (increase of 44*)
Total deaths = 8784 (increase of 22)

Cumulative LTC deaths as percentage of total = 66%

A lot of wierd stuff going on:

The daily report is usually issued at 12:00 Noon. This one came very late in the afternoon as the proverbial Friday afternoon f@rt in the elevator....”OMG, cases are over 2000 again and the highest since April!”

(Do you think four Trump rallies scheduled for Saturday might have something to do with that?)

And *once again, the subset of LTC deaths (44) is neatly double that of the total deaths. Mathematically impossible absent some serious book-cooking.

Over the past seven days the alleged LTC death increases have been 3/0/0/4/51/-1/44

Can’t “follow the science” when you can’t really follow the “data”!

[DoughtyOne]

Does look strange doesn’t it. 44? Right...

[lightman]

In college I took a course in Abstract Algebra. One of the units dealt with “fuzzy subsets”.

I need to find that textbook and review since I’m seeing these at least once a week....

[DoughtyOne]

This is the type of thing I’m seeing in testing.

We’ve been seeing 1 to 1.2 million per day for the most part.

We just had 4.7 million show up on Wednesday.

The next day there were 1.47 million.

That’s bazaar.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

Just checking in to let you know I have been following your daily reports. I have been involved in other projects for the past few weeks that precludes my postings.

[Wuli]

Of COURSE “cases” rose by 90k yesterday, the election is only 3 days away.

Must spread the fear, must spread the fear, must spread the fear!!!!

[lightman]

I always appreciate the FL data when you are able to post.

Fun to contrast a free state (FL) with the Keystone slave state.

[rwa265]

A friend of my wife told her that two of her neighbors signed up to get tested, but got tired of waiting and left without being tested. They both received a notice that they tested positive. When my wife told this to her family, who live 35 miles away in another state, they said that this has happened to people they know.

This causes me to speculate that the number of positive cases will vastly decrease after the election.

[DoughtyOne]

Hey, good to hear from you.

I wondered where you went.

Sorry you’re busy, but then that may be good.

Take care.

Thanks for the note.

[DoughtyOne]

Wuli, the same thing happened at the beginning of June.

Can you tell me why that was ‘against Trump’.

The opening up around the end of May cause that > IMO.

Now the colder weather seems to be having a negative
impact. I know the Left is trying to game this. I’m
just not convinced that everything bad is totally
unrelated to the natural course of a virus loose in
our populace.

[DoughtyOne]

You know the Left. If you don’t play along, they get
punitive.

In their minds, those people must have left to avoid being
caught with the disease. Thus they had to be positive. LOL

It will be interesting what happens after the election. I’m
interested in that also.

By tracking what they are doing, it’s going to make it a
lot easier to catch them in their treachery.

[Amish with an attitude]

Buried in there somewhere must be the real numbers which exclude pneumonia, flu and morbidity factors other than COVID19.