Posted on 10/30/2020 5:54:47 AM PDT by bort
Republicans continued cutting into the Democrats' early voting lead yesterday, despite a rain storm covering most of NC. Republicans chopped off just under 16K votes from the Democrat lead:
Dems---1,556,483 (38.11%) (+62.5K votes yesterday)
Reps---1,286,508 (31.50%) (+78K)
Unas---1,220,771 (29.89%) (+74K)
Black share of the early voting electorate dropped for the fifth straight day from 19.78% to 19.55%. Democrats overall lead dropped from 285K to 270K. As previously noted in earlier posts, Dems led 2016 early voting by 310K, and the black share of the vote was 21% that year. Please keep in mind that it rained all day yesterday in most of NC, which undoubtedly reduced turnout. Expect bigger Republican gains today.
I posted white, working-class numbers from NC yesterday. WWC vote share way up, college-educated Karen vote way down as compared to 2016.
Good info. Thanks for these updates!
Bort - your analyses are very concise, to the point and readable. Many thanks!
I am hoping Nevada and New Mexico surprise us. We get MN, and MI plus one of these states and the fraud vote won’t matter its the EV total that matters.
Thank you.
What are the thoughts on the:
Unas-—1,220,771 (29.89%) (+74K)
Surely these favor Trump. Correct?
Thank you for the clear to the point report..
How is this number calculated.? Thanks for your work.
The weather was nasty yesterday but 26 more hours of early voting
While it’s good to see the gap narrowing, but I’m more pleased with the reduction in Black turnout. To me, that metric has more predictive value than the straight R-D gap. I say this because a lot more people, on all sides are voting early, so not sure if the 2016 pre ED difference matters.
Bort, are you expecting the black turn to increase significantly this weekend on account of souls-to-polls?
Not necessarily. Could be people who just moved in, could be people sick of the DemoKKKrat label but who hate Trump.
I would just assign them 50/50 unless we had really good info on where they are coming from, where they are settling, etc.
There’s no way Byedone is going to be a”come back kid” and win from behind. In 2016 Trump was fighting the establishment deep state as he is today. Byedone has been propped up,literally,by the same dark characters. The momentum for Trump was always there. The deep state enemedia has been faking the polls and been in TOTAL denial about their creepy acts affecting the electorate in a negative way.
Pretty sure souls to the polls ended last week (that’s what I read). Usually a Sunday thing and voting ends Saturday (correct me if I’m wrong). To counter Sleepy’s campaign did major ad buy across states to target the same audience
Bort, are you expecting the black turn to increase significantly this weekend on account of souls-to-polls?
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No. Souls to Polls has been neutered by China Virus. Most black churches are “virtual.” Also, black vote was heavily front-loaded with mail-ins. Biden has also successfully scared a lot of his base from voting in-person b/c of his repeated China Virus death claims.
I agreed with up until yesterday that the black vote was the most important metric. However, yesterday I posted about the surge in WWC voters and the decrease in white college-educated voters. Trump will win NC by 7.
That ‘rain storm’ had a name. Didn’t matter.
Black share of the early voting electorate dropped for the fifth straight day from 19.78% to 19.55%.
How is this number calculated.? Thanks for your work.
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So, I ran a congressional campaign years ago, and I can tell you that states and/or private companies sell “voter file data,” which includes race, age, sex, voting history, etc. Southern states, under the Voting Rights Act, are required to keep track of “race” on their voter files. Google NC state bd. elections and go to “absentee data.”
They’re giving names to rain storms now?
After we win, in hindsite, much needless suffering and angst will have been prevented by you and others.
Oh, yeah. The remains of Zeta brought flooding and power outages.
https://abc11.com/weather/zeta-causes-more-than-160k-power-outages-across-nc/7450012/
What are the thoughts on the:
Unas-—1,220,771 (29.89%) (+74K)
Surely these favor Trump. Correct?
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The last time I checked, the U’s were disproportionately white men. Yes, I would say they lean R by at least 55/45.
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