Posted on 10/28/2020 8:41:36 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Polling indicates Joe Biden and the Democrats will win big. However, Democrats are falling short of the edge they need in early voting to offset the Republicans’ anticipated big edge in Election Day voting in three of four battleground states where data is available.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
Has Trump broken polling?
“In Florida, much has been made of Democrats flipping the early voting edge this year by outvoting Republicans 1,926,055 to 1,463,281 so far. However, that 57 percent of the partisan share is well short of the 70 percent they need to beat expected Republican turnout. Democrats’ early voting across the state is actually falling well short of what they would need to win if they lose Election Day 31 percent to 69 percent. Again, the advantage goes to Republicans in Florida.”
Beware the early voting analysis. It cannot tell you anything the polls aren’t. You get no extra credit for voting early.
In the sunbelt we’re likely to see a Blue Mirage in close states FL, NC, AZ
In the northern battlegrounds, the opposite, a Red Mirage.
This only has to do with mail-in ballots and where they’re being counted and when.
Ignore tweets (and FR) on election night, because it’s not going to be obvious until late, particularly not obvious if Trump is winning.
Nate Silver seems to think that Florida will break the very historic trend of Indies going for the Incumbent with greater than 50% approval and side to Biden. Thats all they can hang their hat on with the data.
Cell phones and Caller ID broke polling.
You can’t tell where a cell phone’s owner resides, and people tend to ignore calls the don’t recognize.
Nate’s claim to fame was predicting Obama in 2008, which everyone with a functional brain could have predicted.
He has been wrong ever since
Ignore tweets (and FR) on election night, because it’s not going to be obvious until late, particularly not obvious if Trump is winning.
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Don’t you think that by 10:30 or 11:00 we’ll have a pretty good idea?
It’s funny to me that the media *actually* believes their own suppression polling, and are willfully ignoring the facts on the ground.
Gonna be lots of screaming at the sky on election night.
Each poll should detail the numbers and percentages of No Responses, whether non-pickups or refusals to answer
Perhaps BUT they myth that donkey enthusiasm is low is nonsense. There is record turnout from the left. The GOP needs to step it up. This means YOU!
Polling broke itself. Almost all polls you hear about are intentional frauds.
You got a hell of a lot of nerve going on FR and telling people to ignore FR. Have some respect.
These articles assume all registered democrats are voting for Biden. 2016 showed that to be wrong.
The polls are not telling anybody anything. They are fake for the most part.
In the sunbelt we’re likely to see a Blue Mirage in close states FL, NC, AZ
In the northern battlegrounds, the opposite, a Red Mirage.
Huh?
This only has to do with mail-in ballots and where they’re being counted and when.
Nope.
Its VBM + Early In Person Votes where Republicansare killing it.
You should get a Covid test. You’re hallucinating.
Well, well, well
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