Sounds like you're implying that's the only way the Republicans hold the Senate. At 53-47 the GOP could lose three seats and still keep the Senate as long as POTUS wins re-election. Of course we don't want that, and I don't expect that, but trying to figure out what you meant by your post.
To get to 56 (your post #11) the GOP must hold most if not all seats and pick up 3 or more Rat seats.